Category Archives: GBPCAD

GBPCAD 4H Short – 27 Apr 17

Acc Risk: 0.55%
Short: 1.7485
Stop: 1.7548 (63 pips)
Target: 1.6935 (613 pips, 4h100, 9.7 RR)
Mindset: Resigned to the market

Update – Stopped out lunchtime – 27 Apr
Update – Re-entered the market – 28 Apr
Update – Stopped out in 4 mins! – 28 Apr
Update – Switching to the GBPAUD – 28 Apr

I just looked up resigned in the dictionary – just to make sure it was an accurate of my mindset right now – it is.

having accepted something unpleasant that one cannot do anything about: my response is a resigned shrug of the shoulders.

That pretty well sums it up! Hahaha. I’m just taking the signals and waiting for my time.

I actually spotted this trade a few days ago but held fire for the resistance line test. It has been quite strong but hasn’t been tested for a while so it felt stupid to jump the gun. If it went without testing it, so be it, but it was so close I decided to wait. I was also hoping for a strong pin bar to give me some confidence. Didn’t quite happen as dramatically as I’d like but it has happened now (Not to say it couldn’t do another flash up again!)

Technically I like this chart, so I will need to be prepared to trade it again but will need to keep in mind the USDCAD trade I’m also watching/trading I’ve just been stopped out of that trade, but I can see the daily timeframe setting up.

4H Chart – the setup

USDCAD 4H Chart – 27 Apr

Looks like a good entry to me, quite near the top of the bands.

Daily Chart

GBPCAD Daily Chart – 27 Apr

Hopefully this will stay as a doji into the resistance level!

Weekly Chart

GBPCAD Weekly Chart – 27 Apr

Weekly price action into the w500.

Monthly Chart

GBPCAD M Chart – 27 Apr

Monthly big push up to the, long standing, resistance level. It’s been prior support in 2014.


Technically the set up is quite tidy, but I can definitely see this going higher before it goes lower. I may have got in too early. If so I will have to try again if the set up is still valid, the chart looks too tidy.

Update – Stopped out lunchtime – 27 Apr

I actually didn’t realise I’d been stopped out of this until the evening. When you trade so many different markets it’s hard to remember all the price levels! Anyway – I thought it might happen, chop around a key level is quite common and price moved strongly higher.

I’m looking for a re-entry and can’t see a clear place to get in.

4H Chart – 28 Apr AM

GBPCAD 4H Chart – 28 Apr

We have two doji bars close inside the bands (which I usually ignore) but now I can see this drift into the bands. I would be much happier if there was a clear top – UK GDP figures are out this morning – so volatility is quite likely again. This is similar to the previous GBPUSD trade I didn’t take so I will have to get back in but where?

1H Chart – 28 Apr AM

GBPCAD 1H Chart – 28 Apr

The hourly chart is showing a double divergence so I’ll probably trade off this chart and see where we end up. This feels very uncomfortable so it’ll be a small position and I’ll need to add a bit extra to my stop to cover the spread.

Re-entered the market – 28 Apr

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Short: 1.7613
Stop: 1.7654 (41 pips)
Target: 1.7429 (225 pips, 1h100, 5.48 RR)
Mindset: Probably the worst I’ve felt trading. I have an awful win rate and constantly feel like I’m getting it wrong.

We’re inside the bands and diverging so despite the clearer stop placement I’ve gone in again. The stop is slightly wider than I’d like due to the spread and expected volatility. Again I expect to get stopped out of this trade again. It’s the morning of the GDP figures, so they’ll be volatility coming into the market.

Having placed the trade – I’m starting to wonder if it would’ve been better to wait for just prior to the news so the market would be quieter? I guess the spreads would be worse?

Here’s my entry (the market has already moved higher since I took the trade, but it was inside the bands!):

GBPCAD 1H Chart – 28 Apr

Stopped out within 4 mins! – 28 Apr

GBPCAD 1H Chart – 28 Apr

Well I’d only just posted the chart and I got stopped out! I’d looked at this chart a few times before making my decision and within minutes of placing the trade it spiked me out! Typical. I know it’s just coincidence but I seem to have a knack for timing.

I’ll wait and see again what sets up.

Switching to the GBPAUD – 28 Apr

I’ve just been scanning the GBP pairs again and I think there’s a better set up now on the GBPAUD. So I’ve switched to that. There’s a 4H entry I’ve just taken, looks like a nice looping divergence – hopefully it’ll be 3rd time lucky shorting the GBP.

GBPAUD 4H Chart – 28 Apr

GBPCAD Short – 28 Mar

Account Risk: 0.6% (bigger than I’d like but my balance has decreased)
Short: 1x @ 1.6829
Stop: 1.6912 (84 pips)
Target: 1.6636 (193 pips, 2.3RR)
Mindset: Like the set up but doesn’t feel like momentum has turned yet.

Update – winner winner chicken dinner – 28 Mar

Another trade I like the look of (uh oh!) I’ve gone short the GBPCAD for a relatively small size. The stop is quite wide so the account risk is still on the normal side despite the small position.

There’s some CAD news out later which might have an impact.

Here’s the setup.

4H Chart

Have a divergence set up and some prior resistance (not marked) at 1.69 level, I doubt this is significant though.

GBPCAD 4H Chart – 28 Mar

Daily Chart

Have run into the 200

GBPCAD Daily Chart – 28 Mar

Update – winner winner chicken dinner – 28 Mar

Feel very fortunate about this trade, I was nervous about price action this morning and as often happens with my morning positions, I seem to get in just before the market volume arrives around 8am, So I often find myself sitting on a negative position quite quickly.

Anyway, the trade did go my way and my limit order was hit early evening.

I can tell I’m still on the emotional rollercoaster because I feel quite relieved about this trade. Didn’t think it would work out for me.

Here’s the final chart, a nice touch of the 50MA.

GBPCAD 4H Chart – 28 Mar

What’s also good about this is I can now look at GBP long set ups ahead of Brexit tomorrow. I have a few markets I’m interested in, particularly the GBPJPY.

GBPCAD Short – 1 Mar 2017

Account Risk: 0.4%
Short: 1x @ 1.6469
Stop: 1.06529 (50 pips). Above 500MA
Target: 1.6374 (95 pips, 1.6x RR). 4H 50 & 100MA.
Mindset: Unsure, I jumped into the trade.

Saw the divergence setting up on the GBPCAD in my morning scan. I do my scans from a FXCM data feed which doesn’t correspond with my ETX bar open/close times. I had a divergence setting up on the FXCM feed, but no close inside the bands yet. My ETX chart showed a close inside the bands – but I didn’t notice the MACD wasn’t diverging on this chart until after I’d placed the trade. So technically I shouldn’t have taken this trade.

Here’s the trade …

GBPCAD 4H Chart – 01 Mar

I did spot a couple of other things that supported my case to get short. Price was at the top of a daily wedge pattern and the 4H 500MA was overhead acting as a resistance point.

GBPCAD Daily Chart – 01 Mar

However, there’s a weekly bullish double divergence in play which indicates I’m going against the direction I should be looking to trade.

GBPCAD Weekly Chart – 01 Mar

Once I realised my mistake, I thought about cancelling the trade, but decided to leave it and see how it worked out, even if it wasn’t a true divergence it was still interesting to see what happened.

Note: One thing that surprised me when placing the trade was the spread (5 pips) – I’m used to EURUSD and GBPUSD (1 pip) – so the stop and target both had added space for the 5 pip spread.

Update: Target hit – 01 Mar 2017

I feel very fortunate about this trade, my limit order hit just after lunchtime for almost 100 pips. Some news came out in my favour and drove price down. I feel lucky about this. The chart doesn’t show the divergence I was looking for and I think it was a mistake and I got away with.

During back-testing I’ve said to myself to take the marginal divergence trades – even if they are not strictly meeting the criteria. However if I had lost this trade I would’ve been berating myself. So I’m grateful it worked in my favour.

Next time I’ll wait for a close on the timeframe I’m studying and then move to the ETX timeframes. Also I will try and maintain the spirit of being open to opportunities and not being a perfectionist about trades.

Final GBPCAD 4H Chart – 01 Mar