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Sep 19: GBPUSD Analysis

Monthly outlook

At the end of August, thoughts going through my mind at the time were:

  1. Have we made the MACD divergence yet? Not a convincing low yet (especially as my 2017 low was the GBPUSD flash crash)
  2. If we are rallying from here – should I hold for the TL or the usual d50.

Thinking for now is we are still bottoming for now.

GBPUSD Monthly Chart – Aug 2019

Weekly outlook

Weekly no divergence in play, so expecting any rallies to be short lived. Short term target of 1.248 if we do rally. Most likely path would be for fresh lows. 

 

Daily outlook

Looking for fresh lows. Was thinking very bearish here. Had 1985 lows in mind at 1.056! But ultimately looking for a MACD divergence to set up. I think I was wayyyyy to keen for a collapse in the market.

02 Sep 19 – GBPUSD 1h SFP Short (+1.48R)

Took a 1h short SFP short from this trendline and S/R level. I really liked the set up. Had a TL kiss goodbye, a prior level that had been washed but then briefly retested. Candle was a pinbar short.

Here’s my journal notes during the trade:

8am – OK with the set up, saw it straight-away, trying not to be greedy will set alerts for TP, SL and T1 to see if we swing fail. If we do I’ll close out.
9am – Trade as closed below the first possible FTA at 1.21395 so holding to next level at 1.2117
9.10am – Trade over, wish all trades were that quick!

 

On reflection, I can’t believe I got this trade. At the time I was trading a trendline kiss goodbye and prior S/R level. But the TL position was a bit meh. Excluded two recent prior swing lows.

On review – I wonder if TL should be tuned to the RHS like S/R levels… I think this was a better level to take a short from. Price SFP’d the TL and closed through the S/R level – which had previously been chopped.

 

If it was, I think I could’ve got in at a better level. 1H SFP off the 1.2206 level which also SFP’ed the TL. The next level down had already been washed so was not likely to obstruct price.

4H GBPUSD Chart
1h GBPUSD Chart

Given this became a 4H SFP When the 1H 1.21885 level broke, it was a clear hold for roughly where my target was at 1.2117. I could’ve held for a bit more but what’s the point when we’re so close to a safe target anyway.

So the entry could’ve been better happy with the exit. The 1h T1 FTA @ 1.21389 was fine to keep in mind. I’ve been burnt way too many times trying to run SFP trades! 

04 Sep 19, 14:30 – GBPUSD 1h SFP Short (-0.54R)

This was a total mis-read of the market. My trendline was in the wrong place so I was trying to short the market from a 2nd TL failure !?

I also held the view that new daily lows were still on the cards. Totally missed/ignored the daily divergence long which should’ve had a target at 1.23. So this short was also against a strong trend. I was also aiming for 1.21109 quite a big move. I remember struggling to draw the 4h level so I guess that should’ve told me if there was a level to trade it wasn’t on the 4h chart.

The short was there but only on the 1h timeframe and so the target should’ve been on the 1h timeframe too. Here’s what the trade should’ve been. Target at 1.2165 at the last spike pre-break of the level.

Trade set up – level might’ve been a bit lower at 1.2214
Trade worked out very neatly – not a big move given the trend.

Should’ve been a 1:1 winner.

Trade Plan – wc. 17 Dec 18

Last updated 10:00, 17 Dec 18

Review

Two trades last week, nothing too exciting. A FTSE short and a USDJPY short. 

FTSE 15M Short @ 6876.3, risk 0.75%, result -£56.10

Strayed off plan, was at home and saw the FTSE running up to a key level of prior support. Took a 15min divergence at that level. Looks like I took the trade early we moved up another level before ultimately rolling over. 

I was tempted to hit the set up again but didn’t because I don’t trade 15min timeframes. I shouldn’t have taken the trade, would’ve been micromanaging, didn’t have a clear exit. 

We’re just shy of a key weekly level 6640. So looking for a retest lower. 

USDJPY 1H Short @ 113.321, risk 0.85% result £28.32

Short took ages to breakdown, but did break to target. Ran it slightly longer than DST target, spotted a nice prior swing point a little lower down. Ultimately wanted to run this much lower but didn’t see any downside targets that would’ve made it worthwhile. 

Outlook

EXY

Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards. This is getting long in the tooth now, so it better set up soon or I’ll need another divergence long. 

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Still looking for the 111s
Daily – Double divergence in play. Any moves down to the 111s would be a solid buy if the divergence is intact. 

DXY

Looking bearish to me, lower TL tested many times diverging at the highs. The 100s don’t look likely until mid to late next year. Double daily divergence in play, hence why I’ve reduced my target on USDJPY. Any tests of the 97.5s would be shorts for sure.

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – We have a double divergence in play, any moves to the 97.5s are shorts. 
4h – Upside looks to be short lived right now. Low 97s would be a result. 

JXY

Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 90s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher. Any move to the 90s would be shortable (other side of the trendline). 
Weekly – Have retested the lower trendline but could see some MA ping pong and another retest into the 90s. 
Daily – Looks like we’re heading lower. Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. 

BXY

BXY has broken the double divergence, it now looks bearish and set up for my downside to 124s for a small bounce and the a retest of the 121 Brexit lows. Look to short set ups.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020. If May loses the vote look for 121s otherwise a move to test the TL. 
Weekly – Broke the 127s now looks likely for a test of the 121s. 
Daily – 124s for a bounce, then a retest of the 121s. DXY looks bearish to me so would need an alternate pair for this trade. 

CXY

CXY looks bearish to me, broken the TL and looks like we’re set for more downside.  

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 86s
Weekly – Checking the TL this looks bearish to me. There’s a couple of closes below, no divergence in sight.
Daily – Looks bearish, I’d favour sticking with the dollar for now at least that is holding pattern.

AXY

Might get a bounce this week, don’t get too excited about it.

Monthly – Looks bearish for now. I think it could set up a decent divergence long at some point. Look at 69s and 63s. 
Weekly – Look out belowwwwww! Maybe a bounce at the 69s. 
Daily – MIght get a bounce to 72s, look for a short set up from there.

ZXY

Looking for a bounce on the kiwi

Monthly – 
Weekly – 
Daily – 


Trade Plan – wc. 10 Dec 18

Last updated 10:00, 10 Dec 18

Review

Two trades last week, nothing too exciting. An AUDNZD long and a USDJPY long. 

AUDNZD 4H Long @ 1.06094, risk 0.85%, result -£54.48 

Took this long based on the divergence on the 1H timeframe, into a weekly trendline and prior support on the daily timeframe. Looking for a decent run up. The mistake here was not focussing on the case against, given it was the obvious trade to take. There were two factors against this trade. 

  1. The weekly trendline was being tested for the 6th time! Pebble on a pond! Didn’t notice this. 
  2. The divergences I was looking at were probably not related. There was too much price action between them. 

AUDNZD Weekly Chart

AUDNZD Daily Chart

AUDNZD 4H Chart

AUDNZD 1H Chart

USDJPY 1H Long @ 112.468, risk 0.85%, partial closed 112.809

Took this long at the trendline and 1H SFP into prior support on the 4H chart. Closed part of the trade at the 1h50 according to plan but can see more upside so looking to hold the bulk until a retest of the prior highs. 

Overnight we’ve retested the lows and made a double 1H divergence and a slight 4H divergence, however there’s overhead MAs coming into play so I run up above 113 will probably be short lived. We’ve also tested the lower trendline 5 times now! Again didn’t notice this until just now! 

Was originally looking for 114.00 now revised down to 113.10 based on the current charts.

USDJPY Daily Chart

USDJPY 4H Chart

USDJPY 1H Chart

Other Trades …

AUDUSD 1H Short 

Missed this 1H set up, looking for too perfect an entry. This was a nice short into a long term (monthly) trendline, dating back to 2001! The d200 was coming into play but price action fell short, my daily resistance line was also drawn incorrectly. On the plus side I wouldn’t have run this far given the price action (but it ended up being a good runner)

AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUDUSD 1H Chart – Short

XAUUSD 4H Short

Trade didn’t materialise, price bunched up at the Daily swing point and broke out. Glad I missed out on this. Now looking to get long at pullbacks to 1241s for a run to 1261s. Might need to look at 1H or 15 min charts to get a retest with divergence. 

XAUUSD Daily Chart

Looking to play a long run up to the next swing point at 1260s. 

XAUUSD 4H Chart

Currently diverging now but there’s no significant prior support or resistance so won’t be trading it. 

UK100 Short into prior support (now resistance)

I really liked this trade but it didn’t set up for me. I was looking for divergence into a key level. I got the level test (slight over shoot) but the divergence was messy so I didn’t trade it. Good discipline but it worked out as I expected. In retrospect maybe it was worth testing but at a smaller size (speculative play like my gold trade from the other week?)

Still think there’s a much bigger move in play here. I have a theory that the Santa rally only really comes the week before Christmas and plays out to the new year. Just a theory though. I think people try to play it too early.  

Looking for a retest of the 6640s to get long. As we are so close it makes me think the Brexit vote will go May’s way. You know what they say the market makes the news not the other way around! It’s even a divergence on the weekly chart!

Anyway here was the retest of the prior support the divergence wasn’t there.

UK100 15min chart short to prior lows

Looks like the long will set up this week. 

Key events this week 

Tresemme has the big brexit vote on Tuesday. Then the usual GDP, PMI, Inflation figures. 

Outloook

This week, look for …

Long: CXY, BXY
Neutral: EXY, JXY
Short: DXY,  AXY

EXY

Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards. This is getting long in the tooth now, so it better set up soon or I’ll need another divergence long. 

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Still looking for the 111s
Daily – Double divergence in play. Any moves down to the 111s would be a solid buy if the divergence is intact. 

DXY

Starting to think this is long in the tooth for more upside. The 100s don’t look likely until mid to late next year. Double daily divergence in play, hence why I’ve reduced my target on USDJPY. Any tests of the 97.5s would be shorts for sure.

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – We have a double divergence in play, any moves to the 97.5s are shorts. 
4h – Upside looks to be short lived right now. Low 97s would be a result. 

JXY

Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 90s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher. Any move to the 90s would be shortable (other side of the trendline). 
Weekly – Have retested the lower trendline but could see some MA ping pong and another retest into the 90s. 
Daily – Looks like we’re heading lower. Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. 

BXY

BXY is double diverging on the daily, look for longs after a shake-out of week hands. Looks like the market expects May to win the vote after all.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020. If May loses the vote look for 121s otherwise a move to test the TL. 
Weekly – If we hold 127s this would be bullish, I expect a shakeout and move higher.
Daily – 126s for a long set up, double divergence in play. 

CXY

Look for the USDCAD short still, I think this could run nicely.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 86s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL and divergence, indicates heading higher. (although really not sure where the trendline should be drawn yet)
Daily – Got the 74.5s on the nose, looking for more upside. Can’t believe I didn’t get this short on the USDCAD!!! Short any set ups. 

AXY

Looks very bearish now. Short any set ups that we get.

Monthly – Looks bearish for now. I think it could set up a decent divergence long at some point. Look at 69s and 63s. 
Weekly – Look out belowwwwww! Maybe a small bounce at the 69s. 
Daily – Looks bearish if we move up to the 74s again it would be an area to short. 


Trade Plan – wc. 03 Dec 18

last updated: 09:00, 03 Dec 2018

Last week review

Last week traded to plan fairly well, however I pulled one USDCAD short order on nerves (didn’t recognise the feeling) expecting a double top. The trade would’ve been a decent profit for me and ended the week in the money again.

Didn’t recognise the feeling which I always seem to get ahead of a profitable set up. Feeling twitchy.

Here’s the lowdown on last week’s trades.

Gold 1h long @ 1222.0, 0.3% risk, result -£21.00

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – 3 Dec 18

Gold hourly chart

Gold 1h chart – 3 Dec 18

Generally speaking my analysis is usually right but my timing is often wrong 🙂 this is another example of that.

On the daily I’m looking for a retest of the 1235 level (which this morning looks like it’s on the cards). I saw a 1h DST set up into support at the 1h200 (blue solid line). So a reasonable set up. However price went against me first, and then rallied. The subsequent set up wasn’t there.

In retrospect, I should’ve closed part of the position at the next swing point (red solid line) and held the rest for the move higher. Given the size of my position, I’m not too fussed. It was a speculative play. The next swing point at the daily level blue dotted line, didn’t set up a divergence but with the double test would’ve been a nice place to get long. Sometimes I think I need to be a little more flexible, being a higher timeframe of support I should’ve considered this more.

NZDUSD 4h short @ 0.68864, 0.8% risk, result -£91.72 !

This is annoying I got slipped on this trade over the weekend by 32 pips. Not a huge move and sometimes it works in your favour like my last NZDUSD short, but still ended up being a 1.45% risk trade.

In review I think I moved my daily resistance level too soon to the last high and there wasn’t any significant swing points to put emphasis on this level. The 4H price action was just not really budging, I think I felt the writing was on the wall for this one, especially as we had a decent move down on the last swing. Maybe I should’ve waited for a fresh divergence set up to get short.

NZDUSD 4H & Daily chart

NZDUSD 4H chart – 03 Dec 18

NZDUSD – daily chart 03 Dec 18

On review I think this redrawn daily level is the correct one and we may get a swing failure from it now. So I’ll have another bash at shorting today if the set up materialises. Will see how the DXY looks too.

NZDUSD daily chart – 03 Dec 18. Redrawn levels.

USDCAD 4h short @ 1.331, 1% risk, Pulled the order

Huge mistake! I saw the swing failure higher, got my set up on the daily chart, set up a great entry order to go short @ 1.3310 and then got jittery about another retest high, pulled the order and set an alert to see how price action materialised.

Alerts triggered still sat on this looking for more upside before shorting.

Well the weekend gap would’ve worked in my favour, the trade would’ve been a hedge of my NZDUSD position so would’ve offset my risk and meant I ended the week in profit.

Massive mistake. It’s well on the way to target. A miss of around £180 profit.

USDCAD daily chart – 03 Dec 18

US Oil 4h long @ 49.15, Didn’t trigger

Not sure if this was a mistake, I have a level which I checked below at 49.4 – 49.15s. I still think we might come back for it, but for now it has rallied. Not sure if this was a missed opportunity. Had a good double divergence set up.

US Oil 4H Chart – 03 Dec 18

Could’ve lost a lot of money buying this ahead of the level so I’m not too bothered. Hopefully this will result in a bigger run when it comes.

Other trades

EURGBP short – Observed a short. Had a nice 3rd test SFP at 0.892s, need to finish the lecture series and back test this system.
AUDUSD short – Good call on this. AUDNZD had more downside. Felt the prior AUDUSD divergence had played out, was looking for fresh divergences.

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last again)

This week focus is on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Failed again last week. Need to map out all my markets EURAUD looks interesting.

Routine

Slightly updated again. Too tired in the evenings after all the life admin etc. Focus on getting up earlier on Monday to get the weekly review and scans done, I’ll do some exercise in the morning too.

Monday morning

Planning & market overview

Country

05.50 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

London

06.00 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

Key events

Lots for the AUD, CAD and USD. Merkel replacement should be announced Friday – Saturday.

Tue 9.15am GBP – Carney speech
Tue 3.30am AUD – IR decision
Wed 8.30am EUR – Draghi speech
Wed 12.30am AUD – GDP decision
Wed 3pm CAD – IR decision
Wed 3pm USD – ISM PMI figures
Thu 12.30am AUD – retail figures
Thu 1.30pm CAD – Trade balance & poloz speech
Thu 11.45pm USD – Powell speech
Fri 1.30pm CAD – Employment figures
Fri 1.30pm USD – NFP & unemployment

Markets and levels

Current view of FX ratios – interesting to keep in mind. People are hugely long EURAUD on Alpari, so look for a short squeeze. Everyone is pretty long Gold, look for a long squeeze and pinbar to get short.

Alpari FX Ratios – 3 Dec 18

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Still noisy
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.53s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s (maybe 1.266s)
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy SFP set ups @ 1.711

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.74s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – This is a reluctant short now. Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Missed this last week. Buy divs @ 1.3141. Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy 1h set ups @ 113.25, Short set ups 114.52

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860

Outlook

Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Longs: DXY CXY, AXY
Neutral: JXY
Shorts: EXY, BXY

EXY

Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Looks like a move down to 111 is likely before heading higher
Daily – Down to the 111s

DXY

Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – I can see a move higher to retest the highs before rolling over for a deeper pullback
4h – Looking for slightly more downside PA before we retest the highs. Ultimately I think the TL will break.

JXY

Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 89s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. Will need to monitor this for signs which way it might go.

BXY

Looking for longs at 126s, ultimately I think it’ll head lower though.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows). This would set up a monthly divergence long.
Weekly – Looking bearish, expect this to move lower. Any longs shouldn’t be too ambitious.
Daily – 126s for a long set up but ultimately lower, don’t get too ambitious with any longs from here.

CXY

Slightly more downside to the 74.7s to get long, I think this could rally nicely. Might still get my USDCAD short yet.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation

AXY

Still more upside for now, up to the d200?, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short and the prior resistance in the 73s
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a short (maybe end of the week)

Trade Plan – wc. 26 Nov 18

last updated: 08:00, 26 Nov 2018

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last)

Last week was a total write off due to sickness. Did get a few trades on NZD and AUD which worked out OK.

This week focus is back on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Also monitoring this plan and seeing how it goes.

Routine

Slightly updated…

Sunday night

Planning & market overview

Country

05.50 – alarm
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (yoga or jail cell workout)

London

06.00 – alarm
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (yoga or jail cell workout)

Key events

Mon 3pm – Draghi speaking
Mon 7pm – Carney speaking
Tue 9pm – NZD financial stability report
Wed 2.30pm – USD GDP
Wed 6pm – Fed speaking
Thu 8pm – FOMC minutes
Fri 2.30pm – CAD GDP

Markets and levels

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Chop!
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.555s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy set ups @ 1.73

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.73s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy set ups @ 112.35

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860

Outlook

Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Longs: EXY, JXY, CXY, AXY
Neutral: BXY
Shorts: DXY

EXY

Same as last week, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Can see the euro holding the w200 and moving higher
Daily – Might be a key reversal week? I think the PA looks like more downside yet

DXY

Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – The run up looks a little flat, wonder if we are due a bigger pullback?
4h – Multiple tests of a TL, I can see this TL breaking to the downside. Catching to the 4h500.

JXY

Right now expecting Yen to move higher. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), look for shorts in to the 89s
Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Looks like a move higher to the 89s is possible, look for shorts op there

BXY

Fairly neutral for now, keep an eye on PA around the 127s

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows).
Weekly – Looking to see how the week closes, could see more downside to the Brexit lows (121s)
Daily – Key week for GBP. Closes below 127 spell doom and gloom, SFPs or DST set ups long will look good for further upside.

CXY

Continuation of trend up

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation

AXY

Short term long, up to the d200, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a big short!

Trade Plan – wc. 19 Nov 2018

last updated: 23.00, 18th Nov 2018

This week’s focus: Discipline

Executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to my routine.
Also monitoring this plan and seeing how it goes.

Routine

Country

06.00 – alarm
06.30 – eggs & spinach
07.00 – out the door
07.17 – tube in. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (need to figure out a routine)

London

07.00 – alarm
07.30 – eggs & spinach
07.58 – out the door
08.03 – tube in. Learning.
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (need to figure out a routine)

Key events

Fairly quiet week; Thanksgiving on Thursday – expect moves to happen earlier.

04.30, Tue – JPY BOJ Kuroda Speaks
11.00, Tue – GBP Inflation Report Hearings
14.30, Wed – USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
14.30, Fri – CAD CPI m/m
14.30, Fri – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Markets and levels

EURUSD – Buy tests of 1.1118
EURGBP
EURJPY – Buy tests of 125.00
EURAUD

GBPUSD – Buy tests of 1.27
GBPJPY – Buy tests of 142.80
GBPAUD – Buy tests of 1.73

AUDUSD – Diverging now, monitor the 4h closes to get short. Ideal level 0.736
NZDUSD – Diverging now, monitor the 4h closes to get short. (d200 nearby!)
USDCAD
USDJPY

XAUUSD – Sell tests of 1239
USOIL – Wait for a second test of 54.95
UK100 – Buy tests of 6860

Outlook

Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

EXY

Looks bullish in the long-term, may be bullish this week, will need to watch for set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Can see the euro holding the w200 and moving higher
Daily – Has crossed key support will need to see if we close again below this level – there is minor support below 111.

DXY

Looking for a short term sell, but ultimate a climb higher to the 100s before rolling over

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – 97.78 level looks like a problem area for DXY look for an SFP (moved just ahead of it)
4h – Could create a nice divergence short in the coming days

JXY

Looks to be heading lower short and set ups

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Looks bearish looking at downside levels to 84s

BXY

Fairly neutral for now, looking for a test of the lows

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s
Weekly – Looking to see how the week closes, expecting more downside to the Brexit lows
Daily – Next day or so key for BXY, will need to see how the 127 level holds, could produce a nice long depending on the level

CXY

Short term downside, longer term upside into 82s

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 84s
Weekly – Can see this heading to 73-74s support before breaking higher. Hugging w200.
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74s

AXY

I fancy this for a reversal short

Monthly – Broken TL, I would expect it to head lower to the 69s and maybe the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, I think daily or 4h shorts are good ones to short
Daily – Very close to prior support (now resistance) look for SFPs

NZDUSD DST Long – 26 Oct 17


Acc Risk: 0.7%
Long: 0.6886
Stop: 0.6851 (35 pips)
Target: 0.7027 (4h50, 140 pips, 4x RR)

Updates

Stopped out – 26 Oct 17

Went long on the NZDUSD last night when I got back from painting at 1am! Had a nice 4H divergence and a double divergence on the 1H. I liked the setup although the daily was in freefall and the weekly had past the w100 and was falling too. The monthly however had support on the m200. So, a little uncomfortable, but took the plunge.

4H chart – set up

1H chart – confirmation

Daily chart

Weekly chart

Monthly chart

Stopped out – 26 Oct 17

Didn’t take long for me to get stopped out of this one. Although the divergence was a nice one, it didn’t work out. I reviewed the trade with Charlie and he gave me a few pointers to keep in mind.

  • The weekly low was close but not broken – he’d want to see that broken before getting long
  • The decline was very steep – would prefer price action to level out
  • The government has changed – the trend might be strongly to the downside for a while

USDJPY DST Short – 25 Oct 17


Acc Risk: 0.7%
Short: 113.85
Stop: 114.32 (47 pips)
Target: 113.00 (85 pips, 4h50, 1.8x RR)

Updates

Stopped out, regular price action! – 27 Oct 17

Spotted this 4H short that looked ok but I think I’m regretting now! The daily divergence is close but not quite there, we haven’t broken the daily highs yet, but we are very close. So I probably should’ve waited for that. Plus the weekly trendline going back to mid 2015 is very near. But the setup is a double divergence on the 4h.

Also, I’ve been monitoring the CCY indexes and the DXY looks to be diverging short and the JXY looks to be diverging to the long side.

DXY Daily Chart

DXY 4H Chart

Not quite diverging but close, clutching at straws?

JXY Daily Chart

JXY 4H Chart

4h chart – set up

1h chart – confirmation

Daily chart

Weekly chart

Monthly chart

Stopped out, regular price action! – 27 Oct 17

Feel kinda stupid about this, wasn’t a great trade, should’ve at least downsized given the circumstance. I will wait for the CPI news and a touch before getting in again.

USDJPY 4H Chart – 27 Oct 17