Acc risk: 0.65%
Short: 152.15
Stop: 152.99 (84 pips)
Target: 149.48 (4h50, 267 pips, 3.1x RR)
Mindset: A little uncomfortable as this is my second JPY trade and there’s a Brexit speech due today

Updates

Reached target nice and quickly – 25 Sep

I’m also in a CADJPY trade and whilst I like this set up too, I’m a little nervous about my exposure given what’s going on with North Korea. If a war becomes real, I can’t imagine the Yen will still be the safe haven people treat it as. However, I trade what I see and try my best to control the risk.

Here’s the set up …

Weekly Chart

We’ve run into the w500 but can still see this going further. We’ve only just touched it.

Daily Chart

Wasn’t sure if this was a divergence from Nov/Dec 2016, but decided not given the distance between the price moves. We’ve crossed the d500 which could make a good target for a bounce?

4H Chart – set up

Not a perfect divergence, the gap is quite big, and the MACD cross slight, but given that:

1. The higher timeframes have run into MAs
2. All other Yen pairs I follow are diverging
3. There’s hourly divergence confirming the set up

I’m still interested.

1H Chart – confirmation

Not a perfect divergence confirmation, but it’s valid.

Reached target nice and quickly thanks to North Korea – 25 Sep

It’s always handy to have a trade end quickly, especially when the moving average you’re aiming for is 200 pips away! GBPJPY hit my target at the end of the day following a unofficial war declaration by the US against North Korea. For some reason despite the Japanese siding with the US and being next door to North Korea, any mention of war seems positive for the Yen!?!

Here’s the closing chart.

Acc Risk: 0.9%
Long: 2x 138.00
Stop: 137.40 (60 pips)
Target 1: 139.96 (4h200, 196 pips, 3.2 RR)
Target 2: 140.47 (d50, 247 pips, 4.1 RR)

Update – Revising my targets – 29 Mar
Update – 4h200 Hit – 31 Mar

I’m really hot for the GBPJPY right now. Price is inside a bullish daily wedge (we’re at the narrow end) and we’ve got a quadruple divergence in play! I’ve traded this from the 4h timeframe but I’m really looking for a breakout of the daily wedge pattern and higher targets as we’ve been chopping around the 4h50 and 4h100 for a while.

Here’s the set up.

4H Chart Set up

Quadruple divergence in play!

Daily Chart

The daily chart really shows the long bullish wedge. Where could price go if we broke out from here?

The trade is on and I’ll wait a see where we end up.

Update – Revising my targets – 29 Mar

I’ve been thinking about this trade quite a bit and I’ve decided I’d be cutting myself short to not aim for a higher daily target. My plan has changed a bit, here’s what I’m thinking.

1. Close half my position on the 4h200, in case we just roll-over again. This would cover the remainder of my position and half of any future add in.
2. Look for a daily wedge breakout to get to prior highs @ 148
3. Any breakout pullbacks add one more position, wide stop below the prior low (currently 137.50)
4. Stop manage the remainder to the 127% fib level @ 155 which might coincide with the d500 & w500. (The other MAs are too near price action).

It might be foolhardy, I know it is very ambitious, but I can see huge upside potential and fundamentally I think the GBP is now the best place for a move higher. Trump seems to be struggling with his reforms (travel ban and healthcare both hitting the skids), the Euro is losing one of it’s top 5 (top 3?) countries, the Yen is still in QE and Japan’s inflation isn’t exactly bombing it! Another set of good GDP/inflation figures might force the UK to up interest rates soon too (we’re still yet to do so – the fed has done so twice). Markets move on expectancy not really actual data over the long-term.

I might be totally wrong though, Brexit is a big unknown and news leaks will probably send prices all over the place, hence taking some profit on the 4h200 target to cover the rest of the position and pay for half of any add in; but you’ve got to be in it to win it, so I’m hoping to be able to hold a position to higher targets. Hopefully I can stop manage this too with some decent swing lows for me to place my stops at on the way up and reduce my risk.

So here’s the set up now. The risk to reward ratios (RRs) look ridiculous:

Acc Risk: 0.9%
Long: 2x 138.00 (1x ~140 – depending on price action)
Stop: 137.40 (60 pips)
Target 1: 139.96 (4h200, 196 pips, 3.2 RR)
Target 2: 148.57 (Prior high & m100, 1057 pips, 17.6 RR)
Target 3: 154.93 (127% daily fib, d500 & w500, 1693 pips, 28.2 RR)

Separately, one thing I’ve noticed about GBPJPY price action is how spiky it is. Almost all candles have long wicks. Not something I’m used to trading in, so setting stops a fixed margin off the lows seems to make for some pretty wide stops. I can forget about those ultra tidy EURUSD 10 & 20 pip stops!

Update – 4h200 hit remainder stopped out – 4 Apr

Price hit my first target – the 4h200. I was holding for the higher fatter targets but price rolled over and stopped me out. It’s in a really tight range right now. I did notice a doji candlestick at the top of the trend channel on the daily timeframe so I guess the writing was on the wall. 🙂

It was hard to watch a very nice profit (£200) become an OK one (£60). £200 would’ve been the bulk of my monthly target but I’ve heard so many traders say it’s the one or two odd trades that make your month or year, so you’ve got to keep something in the game if you think price can go higher.

Having said that, my strategy isn’t about holding out for those big targets, it’s about shooting at near term targets so I probably should’ve closed out. As Charlie said to me, there’s plenty of movement in price working up to a big target so there’s plenty of places to get long or short. Some more education there – price £140!

One last thing, I think I over thought the trade and probably wasted a load of time plotting my hero moment! As John Major said – it’s back to basics!

Account Risk: 0.3%
Long: 138.65
Stop: 138.06 (55 pips)
Target: 140.28, 4H 200MA (163 pips, RR 3.1x)
Mindset: Optimistic (bad sign 🙂 !)

Update – Stopped out – 27 Mar
Update – Re-entered the trade – 27 Mar
Update – Hit the target – 27 Mar

Woah not had a long in a while! Feels like I’ve been shorting everything lately. I’ve had a few set ups forming on the pound but this one has a decent spike down following the terrorism attack in London this week. It also has a good technical pattern and it looks like we’re trying to break-out to the upside.

So I’m in the trade, but I’ve downsized my position. I’ve done this for a few reasons.

1. I’m in an account drawdown (albeit a small one)
2. I found on trades where only part of my position was filled that I was much more carefree with the trade
3. The thing I’m enjoying most right now is taking a position/being in trades, rather the stressing about making money.
4. Being in a trade, but putting some money on the line, teaches me so much more about price action. Reviewing chart history and patterns is SO different to reading a chart at the right edge.
5. My stops are generally tighter so I get better RR and can make similar money risking less

Here’s the set up …

4H Chart – set up

Two downward sloping trend lines that seem to have been broken to the upside. Price is currently hugging the trendlines. I’m looking for a break away to the 200. Price has been chopping around the others for a while!

Daily Chart

I can see the 50MA coming into play at some point, it’s not been tested for a while. Also the 50 and 200 are creating a nice price channel.

We’ll see how this plays out.

Update – Stopped out – 27 Mar

I adjusted my stop slightly over the weekend, I didn’t pick the absolute spike low (broke my rules) and picked the next lowest spike down. The currency pair is very spiky and the range meant my risk to reward wasn’t great.

I got stopped out overnight, but the set up is still valid.

Update – Back in the trade – 27 Mar

As the setup is still valid, I’ve got back into the trade this morning.

Account Risk: 0.3%
Long: 138.25
Stop: 137.89 (36 pips)
Target: 139.17, 4H 50MA (92 pips, RR 2.5x)
Mindset: Still optimistic, although price action isn’t great)

Here’s the current situation:

One last thing on this trade, on the higher timeframes, I like this setup for more upside.

Weekly

Handrailing the 50MA

Daily

Bullish wedge.

I want to hold on to this position for a much bigger target than I am currently aiming for but it isn’t disciplined to do so. So I probably won’t, but maybe I should paper trade this?

Update – hit the target – 27 Mar

Price went up to the 50MA target late last night and as I decided to keep my target where it was, closed my position. Here is the chart this morning. Let’s hope another set up comes along to get me in a breakout of this trade!