Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 1.4634
Stop: 1.4717 (83 pips)
Target: 1.4313 (4h50, 321 pips, 3.86RR)
Mindset: Oh well!

Updates – Stopped out – 25 Apr 17

Can’t say this doesn’t feel like a stupid thing to do, but I’ve gone short the € following the weekend’s election results. Stupid because one of the first things you learn in technical analysis is trading the gap – looking for gap fills in markets. Surely everyone is trading this?!

Also when you get market making news like this – it feels like your signals are going to get thrown off – purely by the monster move that happened?

Anyway, I’m trading the system, but can’t help but feel we are going into a trending environment which is going to kill me system AKA drawdown time? I guess we’ll know when we do the monthly analysis next week.

Here’s the set up anyway

4h Chart – the setup

Looking for the gap fill, the divergence is pretty marginal. Hoping (not my strategy – just my choice in words!) the price won’t go much beyond the upper band.

Daily Chart

If price comes down on the 4H, we might set up for a divergence on the daily too.

Weekly Chart

Nothing stands out to me here.

Monthly Chart

Into a bit of resistance but price has been chopping around for weeks so nothing to really say here.

One thing I should mention is the price high is different on my ETX broker chart to the chart I scan for set ups on. My stop, risk reward and target are always set on my broker chart.

Updates – Stopped out – 25 Apr 17

So no great surprise, I got stopped out of this trade. Price has moved nicely higher and seems to be setting up another divergence. It’s not nice to sit through so many losers, I seem to have created a psychological maker of £7k which I am constantly chopping around. It has no bearing on my strategy and at times I have to worry whether I am imposing my will on the market so I am trying to stay objective but I can feel the emotions, the doubt, the reluctance to trade at times!

Just got to keep plugging away. Trading so many markets means I will have losing streaks and rich seams. Just got to stay in the game.

I’m getting a number of charts setting up for a divergence short on the EUR so I’ll take another pop later, I will need to select the best set ups 4 EUR shorts are setting up, I will probably take two of them.

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Long: 1.4110 (as a market order)
Stop: 1.4084 (26 pips)
Target: 1.4240 (4h50, 156 pips, 6 RR)
Mindset: Pretty ambivalent

Updates

Order filled then stopped out – 12 Apr
Going in again – 13 Apr
Stopped out again – 13 Apr

Got a set up on the EURCAD chart that I like the look of. There’s correlations on other timeframes and other long set ups against the JPY (not had a lot of success against the JPY though!)

Here’s the set up

4H Chart – set up

Daily Chart

Also into resistance on the d50 & d100.

Order filled then stopped out – 12 Apr

Order got filled and pretty quickly stopped me out! I got filled on a bar down and then spike low took me out. Depending on how this bar closes, it could indicate some tasty upside, I’d be looking for a hammer to form inside the bands. Will keep an eye on it.

Going in again – 13 Apr

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Long: 1.4120 (as a market order)
Stop: 1.4084 (36 pips)
Target: 1.4224 (4h50, 104 pips, 2.88 RR)
Mindset: Pretty ambivalent

I spotted this set up last night whilst updating/breaking from my house plans for the door frame sizes! (Not a great situation for trading, I know). Price did a kind of hammer but didn’t close inside the bands, however the subsequent bar has closed inside the bands. The stop is slightly wider so the position size is smaller.

The spread was 10 pips on this market! Pretty wide compared to the EURUSD. Hopefully the order will get triggered and we’ll be in a winning trade.

Stopped out again – 13 Apr

My order got triggered over night and again got stopped shortly after, this morning. Shame will keep my eye on the market, looks like price might be setting up long again for a double divergence. If it does I still think I’ll stick to the 4h50 (despite the double divergence) as the 4h50 hasn’t been tested in a while.

Account Risk: 0.6%
Short: 1.4467
Stop: 1.4506 (39 pips)
Target: 1.4320, 4H 100MA (191 pips, RR 4.3x)
Mindset: Feeling OK, a little nervous

Update – Stopped out – 27 Mar

Thought I’d give this one another try, price didn’t make it down to the 50MA on the previous set up and another set up has materialised. I’ve got a decent enough entry to place another short again too.

Update – Stopped out – 27 Mar

Wow same thing happened again – it didn’t take 30 mins, this time it took a few hours to stop me out. I moved my stop a little higher (to 1.4511, 0.7% total account risk) to protect myself from the MA but it’s still gone higher anyway – not a terrible remove in retrospect.

The Euro has been on one hell of a run today, but with the gap and the dollar setting up for more upside, I wonder if it’ll reverse tomorrow?

The EURCAD isn’t a valid set up anymore but the EURUSD is, however surely everyone is getting short the Euro now? So it’ll probably be another stop out?

Account Risk: 0.4%
Short: 1.4447
Stop: 1.4478 (31 pips 🙂 )
Target: 1.4347, 4H 50MA (100 pips, RR 3.2x)
Mindset: Pleased with another tight entry and upping my Euro position

Update – Stopped out – 30 min later!

I’ve had a number of set ups forming on the Euro to get short, I missed adding to my EURUSD so I’m happy to be adding a small position on the EURCAD. Here’s the setup …

Set up – 4H Chart

Daily Chart

The daily chart is a little worrying though – we’re very close to the 500. I don’t think I properly checked this when I placed the trade. Think I was too keen to get my position in at the level I was being offered.

Update – Stopped out – 30 min later!

Well I should’ve checked that daily chart – the MA got hit and I was taken out. Was feeling pleased with the entry and then the market went against me and gave me a thump in the balls.

Looking back at this trade, the bar I entered on spiked higher and closed down. I should’ve taken this is a signal to re-enter the market on the short side, but I got burnt and being at work I didn’t have time so wasn’t in a rush.

How different the candlestick looks to when I entered. Looks like a different chart! Maybe that should be a lesson in not trading at lunchtime? It’s only one occurrence, so we’ll see.

On the positive side, you often get a few tests of a MA, so maybe I’ll get another chance, but for the time being I’m out of this market.