Trade Plan – wc. 19 Nov 2018

last updated: 23.00, 18th Nov 2018

This week’s focus: Discipline

Executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to my routine.
Also monitoring this plan and seeing how it goes.

Routine

Country

06.00 – alarm
06.30 – eggs & spinach
07.00 – out the door
07.17 – tube in. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (need to figure out a routine)

London

07.00 – alarm
07.30 – eggs & spinach
07.58 – out the door
08.03 – tube in. Learning.
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (need to figure out a routine)

Key events

Fairly quiet week; Thanksgiving on Thursday – expect moves to happen earlier.

04.30, Tue – JPY BOJ Kuroda Speaks
11.00, Tue – GBP Inflation Report Hearings
14.30, Wed – USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
14.30, Fri – CAD CPI m/m
14.30, Fri – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Markets and levels

EURUSD – Buy tests of 1.1118
EURGBP
EURJPY – Buy tests of 125.00
EURAUD

GBPUSD – Buy tests of 1.27
GBPJPY – Buy tests of 142.80
GBPAUD – Buy tests of 1.73

AUDUSD – Diverging now, monitor the 4h closes to get short. Ideal level 0.736
NZDUSD – Diverging now, monitor the 4h closes to get short. (d200 nearby!)
USDCAD
USDJPY

XAUUSD – Sell tests of 1239
USOIL – Wait for a second test of 54.95
UK100 – Buy tests of 6860

Outlook

Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

EXY

Looks bullish in the long-term, may be bullish this week, will need to watch for set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Can see the euro holding the w200 and moving higher
Daily – Has crossed key support will need to see if we close again below this level – there is minor support below 111.

DXY

Looking for a short term sell, but ultimate a climb higher to the 100s before rolling over

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – 97.78 level looks like a problem area for DXY look for an SFP (moved just ahead of it)
4h – Could create a nice divergence short in the coming days

JXY

Looks to be heading lower short and set ups

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Looks bearish looking at downside levels to 84s

BXY

Fairly neutral for now, looking for a test of the lows

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s
Weekly – Looking to see how the week closes, expecting more downside to the Brexit lows
Daily – Next day or so key for BXY, will need to see how the 127 level holds, could produce a nice long depending on the level

CXY

Short term downside, longer term upside into 82s

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 84s
Weekly – Can see this heading to 73-74s support before breaking higher. Hugging w200.
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74s

AXY

I fancy this for a reversal short

Monthly – Broken TL, I would expect it to head lower to the 69s and maybe the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, I think daily or 4h shorts are good ones to short
Daily – Very close to prior support (now resistance) look for SFPs

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