last updated: 08:00, 26 Nov 2018
This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last)
Last week was a total write off due to sickness. Did get a few trades on NZD and AUD which worked out OK.
This week focus is back on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Also monitoring this plan and seeing how it goes.
Routine
Slightly updated…
Sunday night
Planning & market overview
Country
05.50 – alarm
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (yoga or jail cell workout)
London
06.00 – alarm
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – calisthenics (yoga or jail cell workout)
Key events
Mon 3pm – Draghi speaking
Mon 7pm – Carney speaking
Tue 9pm – NZD financial stability report
Wed 2.30pm – USD GDP
Wed 6pm – Fed speaking
Thu 8pm – FOMC minutes
Fri 2.30pm – CAD GDP
Markets and levels
EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Chop!
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.555s
GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy set ups @ 1.73
AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.73s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy set ups @ 112.35
XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860
Outlook
Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…
This week, look for …
Longs: EXY, JXY, CXY, AXY
Neutral: BXY
Shorts: DXY
EXY
Same as last week, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.
Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Can see the euro holding the w200 and moving higher
Daily – Might be a key reversal week? I think the PA looks like more downside yet
DXY
Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target
Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – The run up looks a little flat, wonder if we are due a bigger pullback?
4h – Multiple tests of a TL, I can see this TL breaking to the downside. Catching to the 4h500.
JXY
Right now expecting Yen to move higher. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), look for shorts in to the 89s
Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Looks like a move higher to the 89s is possible, look for shorts op there
BXY
Fairly neutral for now, keep an eye on PA around the 127s
Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows).
Weekly – Looking to see how the week closes, could see more downside to the Brexit lows (121s)
Daily – Key week for GBP. Closes below 127 spell doom and gloom, SFPs or DST set ups long will look good for further upside.
CXY
Continuation of trend up
Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation
AXY
Short term long, up to the d200, to get short for the longer term
Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a big short!