Monthly Review – June 2017

Starting balance: £6,779.05
Target return: £240.65 (3.55%)
Actual return: £96.81
Closing balance: £6,875.86 ( 1.43% )

I’ve enjoyed this month a lot more, felt more confident trading with the tighter rules. Definitely fewer trades, but I prefer the quality of the trades. Still get caught out from time-to-time thinking a trade isn’t on, only for it to materialise and take me by surprise.

I’ve been lucky and unlucky, missed an entry on the FTSE by 3 pips and got closed out of position for a small profit on oil which would’ve been a loser had the trade not expired! Can’t really complain all in all. Still learning lots.

One last thing: I need to be careful with my analysis – not paralysing myself trying to read too much into other markets. my missed EUR long trades were a case in point, waiting for the perfect set up even though I had valid set ups to go long.

Daily Performance

Two daily divergences, I missed both! Gold I was already in a trade and looking to add, the retracement never happened (should’ve moved my target to the daily though – don’t know why I didn’t). The FTSE just totally passed me by! Doh. Would’ve been a good entry following my 3 pip miss on the 4H chart.

All SignalsWin Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Still live00%00%
Total Signals2-0-
Total Pips 385-0-

4H Performance

Missed a lot of trades, again through poor discipline. I have patches of regular scans and then life invariably gets in the way. Be it work events, the house renovations, jet lag or getting burgled! One bad trade (the AUDJPY 15M trade) and some good ones that didn’t feel so good at the time (Oil and Gold).

All signalsWin Loss %Signals with ConfirmationWin Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Still live23.8%00%00%
Not triggered 23.8%26.4%114.3%
Total Signals 53-31-7-
Total Pips 1,687-1,412-276-

June Trade Log

The first AUDJPY trade was the only trade I shouldn’t have taken.

#DateStgyMktPosAcc RskOpenStopStp PipsTgtTgt PipsR:RCloseFnl PipsFnl R:RDaysP&L (£)
101 Jun 17DSTFTSEShort0.55%7547.87591.3447465.5821.877591.3-44-12-33.04
207 Jun 17DSTGoldShort0.45%1292.81297.1431271.82104.81273.51934.482134.55
316 Jun 17DSTEURAUDLong0.45%1.46851.4655301.4780953.11.4655-30-14-30.55
416 Jun 17DSTOilLong0.45%44.6044.114948.701102.2444.7313-19.10
516 Jun 17DSTAUDJPYShort0.45%84.6584.801584.0575584.82-17-11-29.93
619 Jun 17DSTOilLong0.45%43.4642.846046.402944.942.84-60-11-30.00
722 Jun 17DSTOilLong0.45%42.5641.956145.00244444.802243.677112.00
828 Jun 17DSTAUDJPYShort0.5%85.2685.552983.911344.685.6-34-11-33.80

Mistake of the month

My biggest mistake from this month’s trading is my AUDJPY trade; trading on a timeframe I couldn’t manage.

I was keen to take a trade, saw a set up on the hourly that looked nice and went to the 15 chart to confirm the trade. The trade itself was fine, BUT I couldn’t move my limit order inline with my MA target on the timeframe because I was working. So even if it had’ve worked out it became a stress to manage.
I should’ve remembered that my lifestyle doesn’t suit the lower timeframe and not to force a trade through to appease my inpatients.


AUDJPY 15M Chart – 9 June

Success of the month

Had to be my Oil trade, the reason being I took 3 consecutive attempts to get the winner. This is something I should be prepared to do always but I know I wouldn’t have stomached it 6 months ago, specifically: keeping an eye on something that’s lost me money (and not turning away in disgust) and going back in several times. That’s progress for me !!!

Notes to review with Charlie

  1. Go through my current NZDUSD trade
  2. Go through the current EURJPY set up (set up on the daily and hourly but not the 4h)
  3. AUDJPY 4h short yesterday – how would you have traded that given the early break?
  4. Discuss the significance of trendlines in the EURUSD long trade (20th June) and the EURJPY trade (15th June).
  5. How to deal with big trends. Are there specific things you look for? E.g. NZDUSD 4H.
  6. MBT discussion on bigger loses / trades. You trade a pure strategy vs discretionary. If you lose on a pure strategy you have the background of the back testing results to rationalise the trade vs discretionary where it’s not so easily measurable because you’re not necessarily always trading consistently.

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