Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 91.20
Stop: 91.75 (55 pips)
Target: TBC – depends if the weekly divergence forms but at least 89.80
Mindset: Mixed

Updates

Wedge forming on the hourly with divergence – 22 Sep
Closing part of the trade – 13 Oct
Taking my first hedge – 15 Oct
Ops – 15 Oct
Hedging again – 17 Oct

Seeing a lot of divergence on the JPY pairs, some stronger than others I really like this one because the daily and weekly charts are diverging. So I can see a big target here, especially as the last weekly divergence didn’t make the w50. Coming into CPI figures I’m hopeful that we’ll get some movement in my direction but can easily see this stopping me out for a 2nd attempt.

Monthly Chart

Testing the m50.

Weekly Chart

Weekly divergence has formed but not yet played out.

Daily Chart

Daily double divergence in play

4H Chart – set up

Single divergence – possible double may form.

Hourly Chart

Double divergence confirmation.

Wedge forming on the hourly with divergence – 22 Sep

Noticed there’s a wedge forming on the hourly chart – which has some short divergence. We’re heading into CAD CPI news, so I’m expecting an answer on this trade sooner or later.

I’m a little nervous about holding this position over the weekend, with N Korea firing missiles over Japan it’s pretty likely we can see gaps over the weekend against me.

Closing part of the trade – 13 Oct

It’s been a while since I updated this post, the trade has been meandering down to my target, but it’s taking ages. My charges are creeping up all the time, now about 10% of the total profit is on charges alone! I might try trading a currency futures market instead of the rolling daily charts.

Price has come down to the 4h200 which also corresponded with a trenline, I had an oppotunity to close here earlier in the week but I didn’t choosing to hold for the d50. However I can see divergence creeping into the chart and we’ve not had a test of the upper wedge for a long time. So I’ve decided to protect my position.

I wanted to close half of my position here but minimum position sizes mean I have to close 2/3rds. So I’m banking 153 pips now. Will hold the remainder and watch price action. Still undecided about whether to target the d50 or w50/w500.

just an observation here, my indecision about my target probably means I’m going to pick the nearer one

Taking my first hedge – 15 Oct

We’ve got a long divergence confirmed, we’re near the d50 but far enough away for me to take a chance. It’s pretty marginal but I find in patterns like this the divergences often get skewed. I also see this when price almost stretches down to touch an MA, the divergence doesn’t technically form but a divergence still happens.

Here’s the divergence, I’m looking to hedge my position now, taking a smaller 0.6% position size long, looking for a break of the 4h100 (as it’s been recently tested – air kiss?) and a move up to the upper trendline. I’ll keep my tiny 0.2% remaining position open.

Ops – 15 Oct

ETX didn’t let me hold two positions. It closed my short and netted out my long. Not what I wanted. I thought this might happen so I adjusted the position size slightly to compensate, but now I’m only long!

Acc risk: 0.5%
Long: 89.73
Stop: 89.25 (48 pips)
Target: TBC – 4h100/PH as a minimum (60 pips)
Mindset: Excited to be taking my first hedge!

Hedging again – 17 Oct

Well got stopped out of the CADJPY long, price has now air-kissed the d50 and come back inside the wedge. The set up is still there so I think we’re good for another go at this.

Long again at 89.45 stop below the low plus the spread at 88.88. Target is for a break of the 4h100v to the prior high (PH) and a test of the upper trendline around 91.

Acc risk: 0.6%
Long: 89.45
Stop: 88.88 (57 pips)
Target: TBC – PH as a minimum (87 pips)
Mindset: Still like the set up, feel more positive about this one.

From here I’ll look to get short again, daily might well set up for another divergence short. Weekly chart might not though!

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Short: 88.77
Stop: 89.39 (62 pips)
Target: 84.60 (418 pips, d500, 6.74x RR)
Mindset: Like the entry – other JPY pairs may have started to turn?

Updates

Still here waiting – 20 Jul
Stopped out – 25 Jul
Got another set up – 28 Jul
Trade worked out but still tinkered with it – 3 Aug
Checking in with the trade afterwards – 11 Aug

Been watching the JPY pairs for a while now, looking for short set ups. I’ve not been tied to which JPY pair I’d short but so far I missed the EURJPY set up – that went over night – and I didn’t spot the USDJPY set up as it was during my work hours.

Not too worried though – I can still see more upside in the AUDJPY, GBPJPY and until now the CADJPY.

For this position I’ve slightly incremented my risk to the full 0.5%! I’ve decided I need to start increasing my risk, as currently, it’s much hard to hit my monthly targets.

4H Chart – set up

Double divergence.

1H Chart – confirmation

Daily Chart

Aiming for the d500 or d50 – which ever is nearer at the time.

Weekly Chart

Price action has run into the 500, might head to the 200, but I’m prepared to start shorting now.

Still here waiting – 20 Jul

Just a mini update, I was quite excited about this trade but it’s gone sideways since I opened it. We’ve formed what looks like a triangle/wedge pattern to me. It looks quite bullish to me I and I can certainly see another swing high divergence forming. You’ll see all the other timeframe MAs I’ve marked on the chart, there’s a good cluster of MAs that would make a decent target if we do break down, but I’m mindful that we’ve not tested the d20 so, if we do break, I’ll need to scale out on the way down.

For the time being – I predict a stop out and another set up coming, probably next week or into August.

I slept quite badly last night – not due to this – but I kept checking my phone to see how the asian session went with the Japanese quarterly report – I thought I’d finally get an outcome on this trade one way or another – but I didn’t 🙁 just more sideways price action.

Stopped out – 25 Jul

Price action just swung higher and stopped me out. Not sure where we’ll go from here – higher to the w200 – or rollover again. One of the hardest things I find is getting back into a trade, not that because I’ve lost I can’t re-enter, but that I’ll only re-enter on a valid set up so sometimes I have to let a trade idea go because it didn’t set up according to my rules.

I hate to see that.

Got another set up – 28 Jul

Well I missed a move down – as I thought I might, it happened on my birthday when I was out with family celebrating – no big deal, you’re gonna miss trades from time to time. I placed an order in the off chance I might get lucky and I did! Triggered in short at 88.95.

Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 88.95
Stop: 89.77 (82 pips)
Target: 86.76 (201 pips, 4h200, 2.5 RR)
Mindset: Risking more than I’d like but it’s a volatile currency and I’m on minimum position size. I can still see another stop out occuring

The w200 is still in the picture but the most recent swing high resulted in another divergence so taking the trade again. I didn’t take a screenshot because it was an order so scroll down for the result!

Trade worked out but still tinkered with it – 3 Aug

So the trade did start to break down and funnily enough, I can’t define it, but I just kind of new it was going to go my way. The price action down felt like it was going to stick this time. I guess it was consistently down, despite the retraces, each leg seemed to make a lower low.

I have a weekly divergence that I would love to trade, but it doesn’t feel part of my system, that would put the target at 84.40. I am happy to be out at the 4h200 though. I was very impatient towards the end and I thought my target level – being missed by 1 pip – was it, so I closed the trade a little higher. I was convinced the 4h200 was hit, although I didn’t check it at the time.

I’m annoyed that I messed with it, I should’ve left it to the order to take me out.

Today (7 Aug) we are trading at 87.30 which would’ve been an extra £10 to the pot. Not much but % wise it would’ve made a difference.

You can see the price action outside the wedge that took me out and the subsequent run down to the 200. It looks like I was lucky to get my order hit on the 28 Jul for the short.

Checking in with the trade afterwards – 11 Aug

Just thought I’d update this as the trend has been strong and continued through the 200. I was hoping for a retrace to *consider* another entry. Would’ve been hard to get a set up but kept it in mind.

This chart goes to show that if you have a target in mind you should play to that target and not mess around with the exit level as you get close. Controlling your emotions really is 80% of trading.

Acc Risk: 0.35%
Long: 1x 82.33
Stop: 81.90 (43 pips)
Target: 83.69 (4h100, 136 pips, 3.16 RR)
Mindset: Positive

Price hit target – 10 Apr
Going long again – 12 Apr
Stopped out – 13 Apr

A questionable trade here 🙂 another one! Price has diverged off and although I missed the initial entry, I placed an order to get long in case we had any retracements back down to the prior low. Again, was being rushed and didn’t get a chance to get a screenshot! I’m quite glad it’s Easter this weekend, I’m knackered and could do with a break. Don’t get me wrong, I love the markets, but it doesn’t feel good to be trading when I’m sneaking time here and there. The discipline to check the markets regularly has been my biggest shortcoming.

As I was looking for the 4h100 I didn’t cancel the order when price hit the 4h50. Not sure if this was sensible.

Order got triggered overnight. I’m happy with it.

Price hit target – 10 Apr

Price has hit my target! I tracked the limit order down fairly reliably. Updating my order morning and evening.

Final exit price was 83.19 (86 pips) 2x RR

Going long again – 12 Apr

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Long: 2x 82.25
Stop: 81.97 (28 pips)
Target 1: 82.95 (4h100, 70 pips, 2.5 RR)
Target 2: 83.97 (4h200, 172 pips, 6.14 RR)
Mindset: Dubious. All my other attempts to go long against the JPY have been killed. I expect this to rollover.

Price has the 4h100 and made another (marginal) divergence. Why do I always trade it when it’s marginal! Here’s the chart, you can see my previous trade from the recent low into the 4h100.

I quite like this trade, there’s a lot of correlation on the higher timeframes and as I have no other correlated trades on, or planned, I’ve upped my risk.

Daily Chart

Price has run into the d200. The MACD is flat but you could argue a divergence (I think Charlie would say not)

Weekly Chart

Price has also found support on the w50.

I need to be careful with this trade though – this could be handrailing of the d200 (like Gold was) before we continue the trend lower. If the JPY is the risk off trade right now, with equities and the dollar falling (CAD is loosely linked to the USD) – this could easily go pear-shaped.

I have a number of long set ups against the dollar – only this previous CADJPY trade has worked out though. My AUDJPY and EURJPY longs have failed a number of times.

Stopped out – 13 Apr

Ugh – this happened right at the end of the day Friday. Great end to a not so hot week. I’ve wiped out all of my earlier gains and some. So trading side-ways again! I hate it – it’s so frustrating. However I have to remember, that my edge is in the system so my focus must be on my process and not the outcome of any one trade.

What’s been so frustrating about all these JPY trades is the how they have all failed together (not unexpected really) but have since (20 Apr – I’m writing this late!) reversed as expected but without a set up for me to trade. I’ve just taken a short EURUSD from the hourly timeframe and I just wonder whether I could’ve seen these divergences not truly forming, so gone to a lower timeframe to get long!?

Just a thought – one to discuss with Charlie.

Acc Risk: 0.35%
Long: 82.334
Stop: 81.900 (43 pips)
Target: 83.457 (4h100, 112 pips, 2.61 RR)

Update – Another mistake, forgot to cancel my order – 5 Apr

I’ve been watching the ¥ pairs quite closely as they are all setting up to the long side. I’ve left the GBPJPY alone for now; the tight range price action is confusing me, we’re also close to a major daily low, so feel it would be prudent to wait for that to be tested (hopefully with a divergence).

The price action at the moment on the CADJPY has set up a nice long. I had to set a market order to get in as price has headed higher but hopefully I’ll get a fill. I’ve only put in a half position as I have my eye on the EURJPY too. I think that might have better targets.

Again didn’t get a screenshot of the set up! Annoying.

Update – Another mistake, forgot to cancel my order – 5 Apr

So I got that fill !

Price has hit the 4h50 and I should’ve cancelled my order! But I forgot it was on and it got triggered – so I am long the CADJPY whether I wanted to be or not. Got my entry at 82.350. The chart still looks pretty good although the divergence isn’t there. However there’s some good upside targets as the 4h100 has been tested previously.

For now it looks ok to me.

More bad discipline though! Being honest I’m trying to do too much and not prioritising my scans and managing my trades.