Category Archives: EURAUD

EURAUD DST Long – 16 June

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Long: 1.4685
Stop: 1.4655 (30 pips)
Target: 1.4780 (1h100, 95 pips, 3.1 RR).
Once the divergence is confirmed I’ll be moving to the 4H50 as a target.
Mindset: OK – nice set up, might need another attempt to stick.

Updates

Stopped out – 19 June
Sitting tight – 20 June
Missed the boat? – 21 June

This is a more complicated trade than usual. I have seen a divergence to get long on the EURAUD on the 1H & 4H. There’s also a similar set up on the EURCAD but it has run higher already.

I can also see price has run up on the EURUSD (no divergences but it looks like it might make a short divergence.) The AUDUSD has also run up against the USD but is now diverging (not yet locked in).

The EURAUD higher timeframes have some interesting levels being tested now (see below).

I can see at least one stop out given the price range has been low, a spike low wouldn’t surprise me. So I need to be vigilant and prepared to get back in if the opportunity presents itself.

EURAUD 15M & H Chart

Multiple divergences are present on the 15M chart there’s a double divergence (very slight) on the Hourly. The hourly histogram is positive.

EURAUD 15M Chart – 16 June

EURAUD H Chart – 16 June

EURAUD 4H Chart

The 4H bar is about to get locked in as a divergence. I may be in this trade too early. I should’ve probably waited for the bar to close.

EURAUD 4H Chart – 16 June

EURAUD Daily Chart

Testing the d50, however momentum is to the downside. So yeah, I can see myself getting stopped out.

EURAUD Daily Chart – 16 June

EURAUD Weekly Chart

Never place much emphasis on my trendlines, but price maybe re-testing this trendline before heading higher?

EURAUD Weekly Chart – 16 June

EURCAD H & 4H Chart

Other markets are showing a similar pattern. This set up is similar but the better entry level looks to be on the EURAUD.

EURCAD H Chart – 16 June

EURCAD 4H Chart – 16 June

AUDUSD H & 4H Chart

This chart shows the short divergences I am seeing on the AUDUSD. Not sure where this move will end though. If the Aussie heads higher, it’ll probably stop me out. Potentially though I’ll add to my Aussie short on a divergence.

AUDUSD H Chart – 16 June

AUDUSD 4H Chart – 16 June

Stopped out – 19 June

Been stopped out of this trade yesterday evening. The story I’m trading is still in play though, so I’m looking for another place to get long.

EURAUD – 4H Chart

Here’s the price action – it looks very weak to go long where I did – but I saw the divergence so traded it. Would’ve preferred a spike down before getting long. Divergence is still in play though.

EURAUD 4H Chart – 20 June

EURAUD – 1H Chart

Hourly price action is still pretty weak. Divergence is still in play though.

EURAUD H Chart – 20 June

EURUSD – 4H Chart

One thing I noticed on the EURUSD is how close we are to two key levels. The 4h200 and the daily trendline that’s been in play since the start of the year. I think because of this and the AUDUSD looking like it might come higher for a divergence (see below), I’ll set some price level alerts on my phone and wait a little longer to see what happens.

EURUSD 4H Chart – 20 June

AUDUSD – 4H Chart

Although the current bar doesn’t look too bullish (it still might yet), I can see price coming up to those prior highs again. I just wonder if the EURAUD is not quite ready to turn yet.

AUDUSD 4H Chart – 20 June

Sitting tight – 20 June

I may be over analysing this, but I’m still not in on this trade. The EURAUD has sold off this morning (setting up another divergence?) and the EURUSD pattern is still on my mind (4h200 test and the 2017 trendline). The AUDUSD also looks like it might retest the highs, it hasn’t sold off much so far. So my plan is to wait for the EURUSD to touch the trendline, the AUDUSD to retest the highs and then get long on the EURAUD.

EURAUD 4H Chart

EURAUD 4H Chart – 20 June. Currently selling off, maybe another divergence will form?

EURUSD 4H Chart

EURUSD 4H Chart – 20 June. Looking for price to head lower.

AUDUSD 4H Chart

AUDUSD 4H Chart – 20 June

It’s a good story – just not sure if it is too much of an ask.

Missed the boat? – 21 June

I think I’ve missed the boat on this trade. The Euro did sell off some more against the dollar but the Aussie sold off more and so far the EURAUD long set up has been slowly edging higher. We still might get a sell-off and divergence but it is looking less likely.

EURAUD 4H Chart

EURAUD 4H Chart – 21 June

EURUSD 4H Chart

EURUSD 4H Chart – 21 June

AUDUSD 4H Chart

AUDUSD 4H Chart – 21 June

GBPAUD DST Short – 4 May & 10 May

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Risk: 0.55%
Short: 1.7350
Stop: 1.7396 (46 pips)
Target: 1.7236 (4h50, 114 pips, 2.47 RR)
Mindset: Nice set up. Feeling positive after my catch-up with Charlie.

Update – Stopped out – 4 May
Setting up, but staying out – 5 May
Having another attempt – 9 May
Stopped out again – 9 May
Set up still valid, going in again – 10 May
Booked my first profit in 9 losing trades – 23 May

Another set up I like the look of, the divergence is a double divergence now. I had a go at this one last swing high and lucked out on the second attempt to bag a winner. So I was pretty keen to take this trade. However, I got in early on this! I took the hourly chart as an entry and the 4h chart hasn’t actually set up!

I did take a look across the GBP pairs to see how the other pairs were setting up.

Here’s what I saw.

4H Chart – set up

GBP 4H Charts – 4 May

These three charts are diverging nicely – the GBPCAD and GBPUSD seem to have already started to break down. The GBPJPY (not shown above) is holding up fairly well – no divergence yet. The GBPAUD looks the best divergence of the charts to me (set up and risk to reward style).

See how it goes.

Stopped out – 5 May

Here’s the latest of those GBP charts.

GBP 4H Charts – 5 May

Price has headed higher, one thing I didn’t think too much about at the time was that the aussie was the weakest of the GBP pairs. Not sure if that is too big a deal – but I thought I should check the Aussie as well as the GBP against other currencies?

The AUDUSD is in a downtrend – just hitting a trendline. Looks ready for a (small) bounce, the EURAUD has run into resistance and looks ready for a pullback. Neither has a set up I can trade but I wonder if the Aussie’s time for a turn is soon?

AUDUSD 4H Chart – 5 May

EURAUD D Chart – 5 May

EURAUD 4H Chart – 5 May

The EURAUD is showing the start of a divergence set up.

The other Aussie pairs aren’t saying too much to me. I will keep an eye on the GBPAUD for more – proper 4H – set ups. That is, a 4H divergence with a confirming hourly divergence. I’ll be trading at minimum risk until I can hit a running streak.

Setting up, but staying out – 5 May

Macron Le Pen face-off

Today is the last day of trading ahead of the french election. Where le Pen and Macron go head to head for the presidential win. There’s a fair amount of debate about what change a president could bring – in terms of whether they could actually leave the Euro zone – but in a nutshell Le Pen = Bad for the EUR, Macron = Good for the Euro.

Polls suggest it is Macron’s for the taking but apparently the winner of the first round of voting doesn’t necessarily equate to the winner of the overall race. Of the last 9 elections, 3 previous presidents were not the leaders going into the second round.

I’ve got set ups I can trade now – on the EURAUD and GBPAUD which look like great set ups. But the shorts are out in force.

I think the analysis of price heading lower is correct but I’m sure it’ll be down to timing with this one. A win for Macron will probably pop the EUR higher before selling off. A win looks priced in to me – but as advised by Charlie – I’m keeping my powder dry for now. Staying flat over the weekend (It actually feels quite relieving!)

The first round of election results did ripple through all markets (even the AUDUSD). The GBPAUD gapped down last time (and I do want to get short) but any bad news could be punishing on a GBP short given the correlation of the EUR and GBP during the Brexit situation.

GBPAUD gap – 23 April. Not as big as the EURUSD but still a decent gap down.

Will be looking forward to checking price action on Sunday!

Going in again – 10 May

Following the results price hasn’t reacted much to the news. We’ve just had another spike up which has created a shooting star. We now have divergence on the 4H and Hourly Charts. The hourly chart is very undecided and choppy but both charts show a double divergence.

4H Chart – set up

GBPAUD 4H Chart – 10 May

1H Chart – confirmation

Shows the previous days double divergence. Just waited for the 4H to confirm the trade before going in.

GBPAUD 1H Chart – 8 May

Here’s my position now.


Risk: 0.55%
Short: 1.7593
Stop: 1.7653 (61 pips)
Target: 1.7327 (4H100 or prior highs – if I’m away, 266 pips, 4.36 RR)
Mindset: Not confident

The entry was very fortunate after the price action, I checked this trade at 8am but waited until nearer 10am to put the trade on. Early price action would’ve stopped me out! I’ve been hit a few times by placing trades in the morning only to get stopped out.

It’s been making me think that the hourly timeframe needs checking when entering a swing trade in the morning. Something to go back over and check. I’ve set my limit at the 4h100 but will move it to the prior highs if the trade is still open during my holiday. Looking at the chart I think it will meet nicely with the 4h100 whilst I am away.

Booked my first profit in 9 losing trades – 23 May

Finally! I winning trade. I’m not ecstatic – just relieved.

GBPAUD 4H Chart – 30 May

Price action has headed down to the 200MA. I’m happy with the trade as it was. Hope I get a few more 4x winners.

EURAUD DST Short – 10 Mar


Account Risk: 0.6%
Long: 2x 1.4096
Stop: 1.4138 (42 pips)
Tgt 1: 1.4026, 4H 20MA (70 pips, 1.66RR)
Tgt 2: 1.3930, 4H 50MA (166 pips, 3.95RR)
Mindset: A little unsure, as it’s NFP day, what effect we might see

Update #1 – Stopped out – 10 Mar
Update #2 – MA distortion – 13 Mar

A little unsure about this DST set up, the € is setting up short on a few markets and this one looks like the best set up to me. It’s NFP day so it’s nice to be in a market that shouldn’t be affected, however if the € reacts well I’m guessing it’ll follow through on to this market.

The AUD$ also looks to be bottoming out against the $. At the back of my mind is the question of whether I’m shorting the wrong pair. In hindsight, should I be shorting the EURJPY instead?

I’m currently long the EURUSD too and the price action has been pretty good so I’m hoping for a move higher on that market. So maybe this is stupid trade to take – who knows, not me that’s for sure.

Here’s the set up.

4H Chart – the set up

EURAUD 4H Chart – 10 Mar

It’s not perfect, price seems to have drifted into the bands, but the setup occurred overnight and I’m all about trading what I see.

The daily and weekly charts look bullish to me. So I set up my targets for the 20 and 50 MA. I noticed that the 500MA is nearby (like my AUDUSD set up which I didn’t take) but MAs often get air-kissed so I may or may not get stopped out.

EURAUD Position – 10 Mar

Update 1 – Stopped out – 10 Mar

Got stopped out after NFP, the € was strong and jumped up to the 500MA. I don’t think there’s much more to say on the trade. Win some, lose some.

One thing I would say is I got pretty tense pre-NFP and I really have no idea why. I guess I had a lot of positions on (for me)? My FTSE trade has come right against me – hopefully this is just a swing up to go lower – higher interest rates are bad for equities so maybe the Fed rate decision might ripple through to the FTSE?

EURAUD 4H – 10 Mar – end of day

Update 2 – MA Distortion – 13 Mar

Just wanted to check back on this and see how price action developed. Although the divergence didn’t work out; as price moved up to test the 500MA; it did work itself lower. I’ll keep an eye on this just to see how it develops further.

EURAUD 4H Chart – 13 Mar. The lines show my entry (blue), stop (red) and targets (green).

I notice this kind of divergence distortion on my monthly reviews and I think it could be included in divergence set ups (as marginals to allow). I’ll see how it develops over the next few months.

Update 3 – MA Distortion cont’d

Just another note on the trade, it did make target. I appreciate this is just anecdotal evidence at the moment, but I will keep an eye on this pattern in the future too. Here’s the final chart.

EURAUD 4H Chart – 16 Mar. Lines were my ORIGINAL targets.