Category Archives: Oil

Trade Plan – wc. 03 Dec 18

last updated: 09:00, 03 Dec 2018

Last week review

Last week traded to plan fairly well, however I pulled one USDCAD short order on nerves (didn’t recognise the feeling) expecting a double top. The trade would’ve been a decent profit for me and ended the week in the money again.

Didn’t recognise the feeling which I always seem to get ahead of a profitable set up. Feeling twitchy.

Here’s the lowdown on last week’s trades.

Gold 1h long @ 1222.0, 0.3% risk, result -£21.00

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – 3 Dec 18

Gold hourly chart

Gold 1h chart – 3 Dec 18

Generally speaking my analysis is usually right but my timing is often wrong 🙂 this is another example of that.

On the daily I’m looking for a retest of the 1235 level (which this morning looks like it’s on the cards). I saw a 1h DST set up into support at the 1h200 (blue solid line). So a reasonable set up. However price went against me first, and then rallied. The subsequent set up wasn’t there.

In retrospect, I should’ve closed part of the position at the next swing point (red solid line) and held the rest for the move higher. Given the size of my position, I’m not too fussed. It was a speculative play. The next swing point at the daily level blue dotted line, didn’t set up a divergence but with the double test would’ve been a nice place to get long. Sometimes I think I need to be a little more flexible, being a higher timeframe of support I should’ve considered this more.

NZDUSD 4h short @ 0.68864, 0.8% risk, result -£91.72 !

This is annoying I got slipped on this trade over the weekend by 32 pips. Not a huge move and sometimes it works in your favour like my last NZDUSD short, but still ended up being a 1.45% risk trade.

In review I think I moved my daily resistance level too soon to the last high and there wasn’t any significant swing points to put emphasis on this level. The 4H price action was just not really budging, I think I felt the writing was on the wall for this one, especially as we had a decent move down on the last swing. Maybe I should’ve waited for a fresh divergence set up to get short.

NZDUSD 4H & Daily chart

NZDUSD 4H chart – 03 Dec 18

NZDUSD – daily chart 03 Dec 18

On review I think this redrawn daily level is the correct one and we may get a swing failure from it now. So I’ll have another bash at shorting today if the set up materialises. Will see how the DXY looks too.

NZDUSD daily chart – 03 Dec 18. Redrawn levels.

USDCAD 4h short @ 1.331, 1% risk, Pulled the order

Huge mistake! I saw the swing failure higher, got my set up on the daily chart, set up a great entry order to go short @ 1.3310 and then got jittery about another retest high, pulled the order and set an alert to see how price action materialised.

Alerts triggered still sat on this looking for more upside before shorting.

Well the weekend gap would’ve worked in my favour, the trade would’ve been a hedge of my NZDUSD position so would’ve offset my risk and meant I ended the week in profit.

Massive mistake. It’s well on the way to target. A miss of around £180 profit.

USDCAD daily chart – 03 Dec 18

US Oil 4h long @ 49.15, Didn’t trigger

Not sure if this was a mistake, I have a level which I checked below at 49.4 – 49.15s. I still think we might come back for it, but for now it has rallied. Not sure if this was a missed opportunity. Had a good double divergence set up.

US Oil 4H Chart – 03 Dec 18

Could’ve lost a lot of money buying this ahead of the level so I’m not too bothered. Hopefully this will result in a bigger run when it comes.

Other trades

EURGBP short – Observed a short. Had a nice 3rd test SFP at 0.892s, need to finish the lecture series and back test this system.
AUDUSD short – Good call on this. AUDNZD had more downside. Felt the prior AUDUSD divergence had played out, was looking for fresh divergences.

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last again)

This week focus is on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Failed again last week. Need to map out all my markets EURAUD looks interesting.


Slightly updated again. Too tired in the evenings after all the life admin etc. Focus on getting up earlier on Monday to get the weekly review and scans done, I’ll do some exercise in the morning too.

Monday morning

Planning & market overview


05.50 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed


06.00 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

Key events

Lots for the AUD, CAD and USD. Merkel replacement should be announced Friday – Saturday.

Tue 9.15am GBP – Carney speech
Tue 3.30am AUD – IR decision
Wed 8.30am EUR – Draghi speech
Wed 12.30am AUD – GDP decision
Wed 3pm CAD – IR decision
Wed 3pm USD – ISM PMI figures
Thu 12.30am AUD – retail figures
Thu 1.30pm CAD – Trade balance & poloz speech
Thu 11.45pm USD – Powell speech
Fri 1.30pm CAD – Employment figures
Fri 1.30pm USD – NFP & unemployment

Markets and levels

Current view of FX ratios – interesting to keep in mind. People are hugely long EURAUD on Alpari, so look for a short squeeze. Everyone is pretty long Gold, look for a long squeeze and pinbar to get short.

Alpari FX Ratios – 3 Dec 18

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Still noisy
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.53s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s (maybe 1.266s)
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy SFP set ups @ 1.711

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.74s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – This is a reluctant short now. Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Missed this last week. Buy divs @ 1.3141. Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy 1h set ups @ 113.25, Short set ups 114.52

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860


Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Neutral: JXY
Shorts: EXY, BXY


Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Looks like a move down to 111 is likely before heading higher
Daily – Down to the 111s


Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – I can see a move higher to retest the highs before rolling over for a deeper pullback
4h – Looking for slightly more downside PA before we retest the highs. Ultimately I think the TL will break.


Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 89s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. Will need to monitor this for signs which way it might go.


Looking for longs at 126s, ultimately I think it’ll head lower though.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows). This would set up a monthly divergence long.
Weekly – Looking bearish, expect this to move lower. Any longs shouldn’t be too ambitious.
Daily – 126s for a long set up but ultimately lower, don’t get too ambitious with any longs from here.


Slightly more downside to the 74.7s to get long, I think this could rally nicely. Might still get my USDCAD short yet.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation


Still more upside for now, up to the d200?, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short and the prior resistance in the 73s
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a short (maybe end of the week)

Oil DST Short – 21 & 26 Sep 18

Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 50.57
Stop: 51.15 (58 pips)
Target: 48.26 (d50, 231 pips, 4x RR)
Mindset: A little nervous again, low volatility in a traditionally spikey market.


Chose the wrong instrument to trade! Trade closed scratch – 21 Sep
Found another entry – 26 Sep
Stopped out – 28 Sep
Some time later – 06 Oct

There’s an interesting pattern in Oil that I quite like a divergence forming on a couple of timeframes. So taken a small short. Here’s the low down.

Weekly Chart

Crossed the w50 and previously air-kissed the w100. Can see a pullback to retest my green trendline.

Oil Weekly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Divergence off the Aug high.

Oil Daily Chart – 21 Sep 17

4H Chart – set up

Double divergence.

Oil 4H Chart – 21 Sep 17

1H Chart – confirmation

Hourly divergence confirming the trade.

Oil Hourly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Chose the wrong instrument to trade! Trade closed scratch – 21 Sep

I chose the Nymex Daily Futures which settles each day at 7.30pm! Doh, meant to trade the Nov 17 futures market. I’ve done this before – I blame the new ETX UI, confusing as hell. Rather the re-enter I’m going to wait for a new divergence to form. The price action seems range-bound and holding so I think we’ll get another divergence.

I should probably get back in as the analysis is the same.

Found another entry – 26 Sep

Looks like I’ve been lucky enough to get another entry on this. Price did hold up as I thought and we’ve moved another leg higher. We know have a marginal daily divergence and a double 4h divergence. We don’t have the 1h confirming but I’m taking the daily and 4H this time. A break of the rules so probably a mistake!

Acc risk: 0.6%
Short: 52.10 (via an order)
Stop: 52.51 (41 pips)
Target: 49.50 (4h200, 310 pips, 7.5x RR)
Mindset: Uneasy about the rule break but think the trade will be worthwhile.

4H Chart

4H Oil Chart – 26 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Daily Oil Chart – 26 Sep 17

Stopped out – 28 Sep

Just got stopped out on this trade, looks like I shouldn’t have broken my rules after all. The important thing now is to monitor the set up and see if we get another divergence to trade short. Looking back at my set up charts the daily divergence didn’t materialise so there was no confirmation of the 4H chart.

I should’ve waited for the hourly. There’s also not so much going on, on other timeframes, so in retrospect I should’ve waited for more reasons to get involved.

USOIL 4H Chart – 28 Sep 17

Some time later – 06 Oct

This is annoying, price reversed quickly and just ran off. I put an alert in for any retrace, but it didn’t happen. 🙁

Oil 4H Chart – 06 Oct 17

Oil DST long – 16, 21 & 22 – 28 June

Long: 44.60
Stop: 44.11 (49 pips)
Target: 48.70 (110 pips, d50, 2.24 RR)
Mindset: Like the set up, but oil is spikey and the price range has been low
Attempts: I anticipate as many as 3.


Oops my trade expired! – 16 June
Sell off! – 20 June
Going in again – 21 June
Stopped out – 21 June
Third attempt – 22 June
Sitting tight, lacklustre price action – 23 June
Would like to close this on weak price action – 28 June
Hit target PM – 28 June

I’ve been watching oil for longs for maybe a few weeks now. I’ve been seeing divergences forming on the daily, 4h and h timeframes. I’ve also been asking Charlie to take a look at the set ups in the MBT Monday sessions (although I’m not sure he fancies the trade himself).

However, I can see a weekly trend channel in play and we are close to hitting the lower part.

Within the weekly channel we’ve been in a mini trend channel down, which is showing a divergence. The higher timeframe pattern says that we’re in a bearish pennant pattern so going long might not be so wise, but it’s been a while since we tested the daily lower trend channel.

So my expected pattern is for a bounce higher before a rollover.

4H Chart set up

Oil 4H Chart – 20 June 17

Daily Chart

Oil Daily Chart – 20 June 17

Weely Chart

Oil Weekly Chart – 20 June 17

Oops my trade expired! – 16 June

Ops, I didn’t realise the market I chose expired daily! So my trade just got closed! Doh, should’ve checked more carefully before placing the order.

My plan now is to see how the market opens on Sunday night and re-enter the market.

Sell off! – 20 June

Sometimes my lack of routine helps me, I didn’t get a chance to check on the market properly on Monday so I didn’t get back into my trade. It would’ve stopped me out, so the small profit I made on the trade expiring was fortuitous.

I’ve been struggling to choose a point to get back in as price action has been so lacklustre. So I emailed Charlie about it and went to work. Here’s the chart at the time.

Oil 4H Chart – 20 June 17

My assumption was that I should just get back in – price of the time matched my previous entry level – and Charlie agreed the set up was still valid. However another fortuitous thing happened, as I was commuting into work, there was a big old sell-off underway so I didn’t get a chance to re-enter.

Oil 4H Chart – 21 June 17

Going in again – 21 June

Long: 43.46
Stop: 42.84 (60 pips – quite rich)
Target: 46.40 (294 pips, 4h100, 4.9 RR)
Mindset: OK, think I’ve got a good entry here. No daily divergence though.
Attempts: Just this one. I think this’ll stick now.

Ok the set up is here again and we’ve had a nice spike lower which got bought up so I’m going in again.

Oil 4H Chart – 21 June 17

Stopped out – 21 June

Got stopped out on another move lower, the trendline hadn’t been quite touched until now, so not too unexpected, but I never put much faith in my trendlines. Sometimes I think they should be drawn as fat bands to stop me putting too much emphasis on them.

However, the price action has now set up another divergence on the hourly chart. I’m not entering just yet, as the 4H candlestick hasn’t closed inside my bands (although I’m very tempted too).

Oil 1H Chart – 21 June 17

Third attempt – 22 June

Long: 42.56
Stop: 41.95 (61 pips)
Target: 45.00 (244 pips, 4h100 & d500, 4 RR)
Mindset: Nervous about this as the trend down is so strong. Price rises get sold off quickly.
Attempts: 1 or 2. If it goes higher, I imagine it’ll jump around a bit and retest the lows again.

Price has closed inside the bands as of this morning. Price action looks pretty bearish to me, but it would with my strategy. The shame with this trade is that the spike low has upped my stop level so my position size has had to be smaller to keep my risk the same.

Oil 4H Chart – 22 June 17

Sitting tight, lacklustre price action – 23 June

Nothing is really happening with this trade, price jumps get sold off, it’s gone back to small range bars. I feel this is a bad sign for my trade, it looks identical to the previous price action before oil made another leg lower.

Oil 1H Chart – 23 June 17

Would like to close this on weak price action – 28 June

Just keeping an eye on this and the recent price action looks to be weak. I can see another pullback and a potential stop out on this. I’ve been reasonably close to target but haven’t come close enough to close the trade. I think I will be in this for a while longer yet.

If I wasn’t trading my system – I would close this trade. I’ve been resisting the urge to intervene. If I do close it though, it’ll become a trade I can’t properly learn from (I need to experience the discomfort of watching unbooked profits fluctuate) and I’ll be reintroducing bad habits (tinkering with trades and potentially underperforming the strategy).

So I’m sitting on my hands but yeah … I’d like to get out of this and wait for a better entry.

USOIL 4H Chart – 28 June 17

Hit target PM – 28 June

Oil 4H Chart – 28 June 17

Very mixed feelings about this, glad to have hit target and have booked some profits (in fact I feel quite relieved about it – felt like it was dragging on and Oil is pretty spikey) but at the same time I can see more upside! At least to 45 (d500)!

Oil Daily Chart – 28 June 17

Pretty typical I guess – always wanting more – but not being patient enough to wait for it.