Category Archives: USDCAD

Trade Plan – wc. 03 Dec 18

last updated: 09:00, 03 Dec 2018

Last week review

Last week traded to plan fairly well, however I pulled one USDCAD short order on nerves (didn’t recognise the feeling) expecting a double top. The trade would’ve been a decent profit for me and ended the week in the money again.

Didn’t recognise the feeling which I always seem to get ahead of a profitable set up. Feeling twitchy.

Here’s the lowdown on last week’s trades.

Gold 1h long @ 1222.0, 0.3% risk, result -£21.00

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – 3 Dec 18

Gold hourly chart

Gold 1h chart – 3 Dec 18

Generally speaking my analysis is usually right but my timing is often wrong 🙂 this is another example of that.

On the daily I’m looking for a retest of the 1235 level (which this morning looks like it’s on the cards). I saw a 1h DST set up into support at the 1h200 (blue solid line). So a reasonable set up. However price went against me first, and then rallied. The subsequent set up wasn’t there.

In retrospect, I should’ve closed part of the position at the next swing point (red solid line) and held the rest for the move higher. Given the size of my position, I’m not too fussed. It was a speculative play. The next swing point at the daily level blue dotted line, didn’t set up a divergence but with the double test would’ve been a nice place to get long. Sometimes I think I need to be a little more flexible, being a higher timeframe of support I should’ve considered this more.

NZDUSD 4h short @ 0.68864, 0.8% risk, result -£91.72 !

This is annoying I got slipped on this trade over the weekend by 32 pips. Not a huge move and sometimes it works in your favour like my last NZDUSD short, but still ended up being a 1.45% risk trade.

In review I think I moved my daily resistance level too soon to the last high and there wasn’t any significant swing points to put emphasis on this level. The 4H price action was just not really budging, I think I felt the writing was on the wall for this one, especially as we had a decent move down on the last swing. Maybe I should’ve waited for a fresh divergence set up to get short.

NZDUSD 4H & Daily chart

NZDUSD 4H chart – 03 Dec 18

NZDUSD – daily chart 03 Dec 18

On review I think this redrawn daily level is the correct one and we may get a swing failure from it now. So I’ll have another bash at shorting today if the set up materialises. Will see how the DXY looks too.

NZDUSD daily chart – 03 Dec 18. Redrawn levels.

USDCAD 4h short @ 1.331, 1% risk, Pulled the order

Huge mistake! I saw the swing failure higher, got my set up on the daily chart, set up a great entry order to go short @ 1.3310 and then got jittery about another retest high, pulled the order and set an alert to see how price action materialised.

Alerts triggered still sat on this looking for more upside before shorting.

Well the weekend gap would’ve worked in my favour, the trade would’ve been a hedge of my NZDUSD position so would’ve offset my risk and meant I ended the week in profit.

Massive mistake. It’s well on the way to target. A miss of around £180 profit.

USDCAD daily chart – 03 Dec 18

US Oil 4h long @ 49.15, Didn’t trigger

Not sure if this was a mistake, I have a level which I checked below at 49.4 – 49.15s. I still think we might come back for it, but for now it has rallied. Not sure if this was a missed opportunity. Had a good double divergence set up.

US Oil 4H Chart – 03 Dec 18

Could’ve lost a lot of money buying this ahead of the level so I’m not too bothered. Hopefully this will result in a bigger run when it comes.

Other trades

EURGBP short – Observed a short. Had a nice 3rd test SFP at 0.892s, need to finish the lecture series and back test this system.
AUDUSD short – Good call on this. AUDNZD had more downside. Felt the prior AUDUSD divergence had played out, was looking for fresh divergences.

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last again)

This week focus is on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Failed again last week. Need to map out all my markets EURAUD looks interesting.


Slightly updated again. Too tired in the evenings after all the life admin etc. Focus on getting up earlier on Monday to get the weekly review and scans done, I’ll do some exercise in the morning too.

Monday morning

Planning & market overview


05.50 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed


06.00 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

Key events

Lots for the AUD, CAD and USD. Merkel replacement should be announced Friday – Saturday.

Tue 9.15am GBP – Carney speech
Tue 3.30am AUD – IR decision
Wed 8.30am EUR – Draghi speech
Wed 12.30am AUD – GDP decision
Wed 3pm CAD – IR decision
Wed 3pm USD – ISM PMI figures
Thu 12.30am AUD – retail figures
Thu 1.30pm CAD – Trade balance & poloz speech
Thu 11.45pm USD – Powell speech
Fri 1.30pm CAD – Employment figures
Fri 1.30pm USD – NFP & unemployment

Markets and levels

Current view of FX ratios – interesting to keep in mind. People are hugely long EURAUD on Alpari, so look for a short squeeze. Everyone is pretty long Gold, look for a long squeeze and pinbar to get short.

Alpari FX Ratios – 3 Dec 18

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Still noisy
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.53s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s (maybe 1.266s)
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy SFP set ups @ 1.711

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.74s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – This is a reluctant short now. Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Missed this last week. Buy divs @ 1.3141. Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy 1h set ups @ 113.25, Short set ups 114.52

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860


Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Neutral: JXY
Shorts: EXY, BXY


Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Looks like a move down to 111 is likely before heading higher
Daily – Down to the 111s


Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – I can see a move higher to retest the highs before rolling over for a deeper pullback
4h – Looking for slightly more downside PA before we retest the highs. Ultimately I think the TL will break.


Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 89s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. Will need to monitor this for signs which way it might go.


Looking for longs at 126s, ultimately I think it’ll head lower though.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows). This would set up a monthly divergence long.
Weekly – Looking bearish, expect this to move lower. Any longs shouldn’t be too ambitious.
Daily – 126s for a long set up but ultimately lower, don’t get too ambitious with any longs from here.


Slightly more downside to the 74.7s to get long, I think this could rally nicely. Might still get my USDCAD short yet.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation


Still more upside for now, up to the d200?, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short and the prior resistance in the 73s
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a short (maybe end of the week)

USDCAD DST Long – 30 Jun, 4 Jul, 5 Jul, 7 Jul & 17 Jul 2017

Long: 1.2974
Stop: 1.2941 (34 pips)
Target: 1.3181 (206 pips, 4h50, 6x RR)
Mindset: Like the divergence, love the RR. Optimistic on this.
Attempts: A couple


Stopped out – 4 Jul
Going in again – 5 Jul
Conversation with Charlie – 5 Jul
Stopped out again – 7 Jul
Switching to the AUDCAD set up – 10 Jul
Taking another set up – 17 Jul
Stopped out an hour later – 17 Jul

I’ve been watching the USDCAD for a while now, CAD has been really strong and has broken the trend channel, so I’ve been watching for divergence to set up and then a retest of the lower trendline (this time as resistance rather than support).

I may be a little early on this trade – both charts show bars that haven’t closed yet! So they might disprove the entry, I’m taking the trade because of my timing (I’m at work on lunch) and the fact that the 15M chart has a mega divergence in play 3x.


USDCAD 1H Chart – 30 June


USDCAD 4H Chart – 30 June. Lower trendline in green.

Stopped out – 4 Jul

Just been stopped out – thought this trade might stick but price has rolled over. The divergences are still there so looking for another setup.

Going in again – 5 Jul

Long: 1.2949
Stop: 1.2907 (42 pips)
Target: 1.3156 (207 pips, 4h50, 4.92x RR)
Mindset: Slightly wider stop so the RR isn’t as good, but I still like the trade.
Attempts: Can still see this getting stopped out

I’m going in again, the divergence is still in play. Price has drifted back inside the bands but talking with Charlie he said that he isn’t overly worried about price action when it comes to set ups.

4H Chart

Screenshots were taken later in the day!

USDCAD 4H Chart – 5 Jul

1H Chart

Screenshots were taken later in the day!

USDCAD 1H Chart – 5 Jul

Conversation with Charlie – 5 Jul

Quick update, I had my monthly review call with Charlie. It was a good call, I asked him to review this trade and my Oil trade. He liked the Oil set up but not this one so much. His POV was that the divergence had formed in space with no obvious technical levels to support price action.

It’s a good point, I’ve not been great at checking the higher timeframes regularly. This is definitely something I need to make more effort to do in future.

Stopped out again – 7 Jul

Price has stopped me out again, a little disappointing. I thought I might be onto a winner. I will keep an eye on this, I will definitely go in again, if the set up occurs, but this time I’ll look for more technical reasons to.

However – a triple divergence or higher will be hard to resist.

Switching to the AUDCAD set up – 10 Jul

Just thought I should update the post to note that I’ve switched to the AUDCAD. I think the CAD is due a turn (divergences occuring on different markets) and the Aussie looks good for a move higher against the dollar.

So it’s a bit of triangular set up AUD – USD – CAD, but if I’m interested in going long USDCAD and the Aussie is looking strong against the dollar, and both set ups are valid (occuring on two timeframes). I think it’s OK to switch to AUDCAD.

One point that Charlie pointed out from my April review was that I was jumping too many markets. However I think this is justified as the set up looks better.

Taking another set up – 17 Jul

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Long: 1.2655
Stop: 1.2633 (22 pips)
Target: 1.2830 (175 pips, 4h50, 7.95x RR)
Mindset: Reticent to take the trade but (very) excited about the RR.

Had a rare opportunity to do a market scan at lunchtime spotted the divergence on the 1H and 4H charts that I liked the look of, USDCAD is now into a S&R zone formed of the prior highs and lows from early 2015 and early 2016.

Whilst there is an element of catching a falling knife, I feel that a double 4H divergence and a 1H confirmation is worth a shot. AUDCAD & GBPCAD look like they might start to make higher highs, although only the AUDCAD has so far.

The rest of the pairs are showing a divergence.

4H Chart

USDCAD 4H Chart – 17 Jul

1H Chart

USDCAD 1H Chart – 17 Jul

Daily Chart

No divergence in site, it’s a great run down.

USDCAD Daily Chart – 17 Jul

Weekly Chart

We’re near the 200MA but I’m happy to try starting a long now.

USDCAD Weekly Chart – 17 Jul

Stopped out an hour later – 17 Jul

USDCAD 4H Chart – 17 Jul. The most recent spike low took me out.

Just got stopped out, and price has immediately reversed again! Frustrating. It’s got me thinking more about stops, a couple of ideas that I feel I should test out.

  1. Trauma stops – set a trauma stop of say 1x Max ATR and reduce to a regular stop once a swing high – low has formed.
  2. Set the stop off the higher timeframe. However any close below the low should close the trade.
  3. Exponentially reducing stops – up to a limit. Maybe use some fibonacci thing 🙂

Just ideas for now.

USDCAD DST Short – 1 May

Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 2 x 1.3678
Stop: 1.3705 (27 pips)
Target 1: 1.3577 (4h50, 101 pips, 3.74 RR)
Target 2: 1.3461 (4h100, 217 pips, 8 RR)
Mindset: Feeling pretty smart about this one.

I was just doing my monthly review and noticed this set up. I’ve been looking into the hourly, 4 hourly and daily correlations. This set up caught my attention because there’s so many divergences in play! So again, another trade to be positive about! The trade is in two parts – because there’s two possible targets in play – the 4h50 and the 4h100. Because of the split targets my position risk is slightly higher, but I think it’s the right decision to make.

The divergences are visible on every timeframe!

1H Chart – the setup

USDCAD Hourly Chart – 1 May

4H Chart

USDCAD 4H Chart – 1 May

There’s nothing to really say on the Weekly or Monthly timeframes. As far as these charts are concerned price could easily go higher still.

Daily Chart

Doesn’t look like it will be a divergence but nonetheless close to being one.

USDCAD Daily Chart – 1 May

Weekly Chart

USDCAD W Chart – 1 May

If price does reverse, we’ll get a divergence on this timeframe, so could look to revise the targets.

Stopped out – 2 May

Price action has moved higher against me, it looked like it was going to go my way, but quickly moved against me this afternoon.

I am still watching this market closely. I think we could well get another divergence forming.

USDCAD 4H Chart – 2 May

Still watching this market – 2 May

Price has closed inside the bands (just though) so I’m tempted to take another trade. The stop size is now much bigger than before so the trade isn’t as appealing. The bar has also only just closed inside the bands (by 4 pips) and we’re going into the night now (10pm UK time), spreads have widened and the phone icon keeps appearing on my screen.

I’m not really sure what is best to do, I will leave it overnight and see whether we get a better entry.

USDCAD 4H Chart – 2 May

USDCAD 4H Short – 26 Apr 17

Acc Risk:
Short: 1.3588
Stop: 1.3631 (43 pips)
Target: 1.3434 (4h50, 154 pips, 3.58 RR)
Mindset: Relatively comfortable

Update – Stopped out overnight – 27 Apr

I’ve been staying clear of USDCAD lately; the charts are really choppy and I felt they were difficult to read. However, trading mechanically, I have elected to take the trade. The RR is good and the volatility has picked up so we could make a quick buck!

I did this at lunch so didn’t get a chance to screenshot my charts. I did screenshot my ticket to help me blog this later, so here you go.


I can see this going either way, as usual, so we’ll see how it goes.

Stopped out overnight – 27 Apr

Didn’t go my way, again trading lots of different markets means I’m more subject to getting bigger runs of losers and winners. So not much to say on this trade. I don’t think I did anything wrong, just one of those things. The move in my direction was ultimately a good one, so unfortunate with timing and entry.

USDCAD 4H Chart – 27 Apr

On to the next trade … which might very well be USDCAD again! The daily chart is setting up to go short now. We’ll see if the bar closes inside the bands and I can get a good entry tomorrow.