Category Archives: NZDUSD

Trade Plan – wc. 03 Dec 18

last updated: 09:00, 03 Dec 2018

Last week review

Last week traded to plan fairly well, however I pulled one USDCAD short order on nerves (didn’t recognise the feeling) expecting a double top. The trade would’ve been a decent profit for me and ended the week in the money again.

Didn’t recognise the feeling which I always seem to get ahead of a profitable set up. Feeling twitchy.

Here’s the lowdown on last week’s trades.

Gold 1h long @ 1222.0, 0.3% risk, result -£21.00

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – 3 Dec 18

Gold hourly chart

Gold 1h chart – 3 Dec 18

Generally speaking my analysis is usually right but my timing is often wrong 🙂 this is another example of that.

On the daily I’m looking for a retest of the 1235 level (which this morning looks like it’s on the cards). I saw a 1h DST set up into support at the 1h200 (blue solid line). So a reasonable set up. However price went against me first, and then rallied. The subsequent set up wasn’t there.

In retrospect, I should’ve closed part of the position at the next swing point (red solid line) and held the rest for the move higher. Given the size of my position, I’m not too fussed. It was a speculative play. The next swing point at the daily level blue dotted line, didn’t set up a divergence but with the double test would’ve been a nice place to get long. Sometimes I think I need to be a little more flexible, being a higher timeframe of support I should’ve considered this more.

NZDUSD 4h short @ 0.68864, 0.8% risk, result -£91.72 !

This is annoying I got slipped on this trade over the weekend by 32 pips. Not a huge move and sometimes it works in your favour like my last NZDUSD short, but still ended up being a 1.45% risk trade.

In review I think I moved my daily resistance level too soon to the last high and there wasn’t any significant swing points to put emphasis on this level. The 4H price action was just not really budging, I think I felt the writing was on the wall for this one, especially as we had a decent move down on the last swing. Maybe I should’ve waited for a fresh divergence set up to get short.

NZDUSD 4H & Daily chart

NZDUSD 4H chart – 03 Dec 18

NZDUSD – daily chart 03 Dec 18

On review I think this redrawn daily level is the correct one and we may get a swing failure from it now. So I’ll have another bash at shorting today if the set up materialises. Will see how the DXY looks too.

NZDUSD daily chart – 03 Dec 18. Redrawn levels.

USDCAD 4h short @ 1.331, 1% risk, Pulled the order

Huge mistake! I saw the swing failure higher, got my set up on the daily chart, set up a great entry order to go short @ 1.3310 and then got jittery about another retest high, pulled the order and set an alert to see how price action materialised.

Alerts triggered still sat on this looking for more upside before shorting.

Well the weekend gap would’ve worked in my favour, the trade would’ve been a hedge of my NZDUSD position so would’ve offset my risk and meant I ended the week in profit.

Massive mistake. It’s well on the way to target. A miss of around £180 profit.

USDCAD daily chart – 03 Dec 18

US Oil 4h long @ 49.15, Didn’t trigger

Not sure if this was a mistake, I have a level which I checked below at 49.4 – 49.15s. I still think we might come back for it, but for now it has rallied. Not sure if this was a missed opportunity. Had a good double divergence set up.

US Oil 4H Chart – 03 Dec 18

Could’ve lost a lot of money buying this ahead of the level so I’m not too bothered. Hopefully this will result in a bigger run when it comes.

Other trades

EURGBP short – Observed a short. Had a nice 3rd test SFP at 0.892s, need to finish the lecture series and back test this system.
AUDUSD short – Good call on this. AUDNZD had more downside. Felt the prior AUDUSD divergence had played out, was looking for fresh divergences.

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last again)

This week focus is on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Failed again last week. Need to map out all my markets EURAUD looks interesting.


Slightly updated again. Too tired in the evenings after all the life admin etc. Focus on getting up earlier on Monday to get the weekly review and scans done, I’ll do some exercise in the morning too.

Monday morning

Planning & market overview


05.50 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed


06.00 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

Key events

Lots for the AUD, CAD and USD. Merkel replacement should be announced Friday – Saturday.

Tue 9.15am GBP – Carney speech
Tue 3.30am AUD – IR decision
Wed 8.30am EUR – Draghi speech
Wed 12.30am AUD – GDP decision
Wed 3pm CAD – IR decision
Wed 3pm USD – ISM PMI figures
Thu 12.30am AUD – retail figures
Thu 1.30pm CAD – Trade balance & poloz speech
Thu 11.45pm USD – Powell speech
Fri 1.30pm CAD – Employment figures
Fri 1.30pm USD – NFP & unemployment

Markets and levels

Current view of FX ratios – interesting to keep in mind. People are hugely long EURAUD on Alpari, so look for a short squeeze. Everyone is pretty long Gold, look for a long squeeze and pinbar to get short.

Alpari FX Ratios – 3 Dec 18

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Still noisy
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.53s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s (maybe 1.266s)
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy SFP set ups @ 1.711

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.74s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – This is a reluctant short now. Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Missed this last week. Buy divs @ 1.3141. Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy 1h set ups @ 113.25, Short set ups 114.52

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860


Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Neutral: JXY
Shorts: EXY, BXY


Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Looks like a move down to 111 is likely before heading higher
Daily – Down to the 111s


Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – I can see a move higher to retest the highs before rolling over for a deeper pullback
4h – Looking for slightly more downside PA before we retest the highs. Ultimately I think the TL will break.


Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 89s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. Will need to monitor this for signs which way it might go.


Looking for longs at 126s, ultimately I think it’ll head lower though.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows). This would set up a monthly divergence long.
Weekly – Looking bearish, expect this to move lower. Any longs shouldn’t be too ambitious.
Daily – 126s for a long set up but ultimately lower, don’t get too ambitious with any longs from here.


Slightly more downside to the 74.7s to get long, I think this could rally nicely. Might still get my USDCAD short yet.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation


Still more upside for now, up to the d200?, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short and the prior resistance in the 73s
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a short (maybe end of the week)

NZDUSD DST Long – 26 Oct 17

Acc Risk: 0.7%
Long: 0.6886
Stop: 0.6851 (35 pips)
Target: 0.7027 (4h50, 140 pips, 4x RR)


Stopped out – 26 Oct 17

Went long on the NZDUSD last night when I got back from painting at 1am! Had a nice 4H divergence and a double divergence on the 1H. I liked the setup although the daily was in freefall and the weekly had past the w100 and was falling too. The monthly however had support on the m200. So, a little uncomfortable, but took the plunge.

4H chart – set up

1H chart – confirmation

Daily chart

Weekly chart

Monthly chart

Stopped out – 26 Oct 17

Didn’t take long for me to get stopped out of this one. Although the divergence was a nice one, it didn’t work out. I reviewed the trade with Charlie and he gave me a few pointers to keep in mind.

  • The weekly low was close but not broken – he’d want to see that broken before getting long
  • The decline was very steep – would prefer price action to level out
  • The government has changed – the trend might be strongly to the downside for a while

NZDUSD DST Long – 1 Sept 17

Acc Risk: 0.55%
Long: 0.7162
Stop: 0.7125 (37 pips)
Target: 0.7261 (4h100, 99 pips, 2.67x RR)
Mindset: Not sure the set up is that great in hindsight, but still sticking to my target of 4h100.


NFP went my way, but price didn’t hold – 1 Sep
Surprised to see price hit my target – 5 Sep

Got another set up on the NZDUSD. I’d placed an order to get triggered in on this, but was kind of expecting to miss out on this. Price has crossed the 4h500 and the 4h100 and 4h500 will probably converge so I’m thinking a higher target isn’t realistic. Also the d200 has only just been tested (air kissed?) so I can see price chopping around the d200.

Anyway – I’m taking the set up, but expecting to get stopped out.

4H Chart – the set up

I’m pretty happy to trade around moving averages and overshoots like this aren’t uncommon, so it hasn’t put me off. Especially as there’s a divergence. Good entry to go long now.

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 1 Sep 17

1H Chart

Not really a divergence as such – but the MACD low from 23rd / 24th is still lower than the recent low from the 31st. There a mini divergence over the 23rd / 24th that’s played out but as the current low is a little higher I think it’s worth a try. Pretty tenuous I know. Not an A grade set up.

NZDUSD 1H Chart – 1 Sep 17

Daily Chart

We’ve touched the d200 and are in between the d200 and d100. Whilst we could easily do another test of the d200 I think – given the 4h chart – we could be due a retest of the d5.

NZDUSD Daily Chart – 1 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Weekly into the w50, I wonder whether we’ll get to the upper trendline? I think it’s around the 4h100.

NZDUSD Weekly Chart – 1 Sep 17

NFP went my way, but price didn’t hold – 1 Sep


This price action really took me by surprise. The NFP result was a miss and so was the unemployment %, however did sustain my rally. Got to say I was surprised to see this, so now I definitely expect to get stopped out, but I will sit tight and let the probability play out.

Surprised to see price hit my target – 5 Sep

Just had my price target hit, pretty happy about it, didn’t feel like it was a great trade to pick in hindsight.

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 5 Sep 17

NZDUSD DST Long – 24 Aug 17

Acc risk: 0.75%
Long: 0.7218
Stop: 0.7185 (33 pips)
Target: 0.7279 (4h50, 61 pips, 2x RR)
Mindset: Liked the set up, but can see things wrong with it now.


Changed my target – 25 Aug
4h100 target hit – 29 Aug

Nice double divergence on the 4h chart and a confirmation on the 1h divergence. I think this might still go a little lower, d100 and w50 nearby. Might have made a mistake here. The higher timeframes look bullish but price could head lower first. The divergence on the 4h timeframe coincides with a 4h500.

I can’t make up my mind on this – I think I’m in too early. We’ll see.

4H Chart – set up

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 24 Aug 17

1H Chart – confirmation

NZDUSD H Chart – 24 Aug 17

Daily chart

The Daily chart looks troubling to me – this is definitely not a perfect set up. Price is close to the d100.

NZDUSD Daily Chart – 24 Aug 17

Weekly chart

Price has just touched the w20 but can easily go to the w50. Really not sure this is a great set up.

NZDUSD Weekly Chart – 24 Aug 17

Monthly chart

Price is touching the m5, another positive sign, but ultimately I think the daily chart is a little troubling. I guess there’s enough going on to warrant the trade.

NZDUSD Monthly Chart – 24 Aug 17

Changed my target – 25 Aug

Just a quick update – I reconsidered my target and given the recent test, decided to go for the 4h100 instead. Stop is still the same. New set up is …

Acc risk: 0.75%
Long: 0.7218
Stop: 0.7185 (33 pips)
Target: 0.7300 (4h100, 115 pips, 3.48x RR)

Hit my target – 29 Aug

Well I thought this would never happen – so many doji bars – I thought I was finished. But we hit target at 0.7288. Pretty fortunate given the less than perfect set up. I can see this working out again later though, when we head a little lower.

New NZDUSD entry

Sometime later – I got another set up on the NZDUSD.

NZDUSD DST Short – 30 June 17

Acc Risk: 0.45%
Short: 0.7317
Stop: 0.7354 (36 pips)
Target: 0.7159 (158 pips, 4h200!, 4.3x RR)
Mindset: Like the setup into the upper trendline
Attempts: One or two more

I like this set up, we’ve got a quadruple divergence on the 4H chart and the confirming 1H chart has a double divergence. Usually I would trade this to the 4h100, but the daily chart almost diverged and so I’m looking for a bigger run.

I often notice that divergences don’t quite form when price runs to technical levels (trendlines or MAs) but are still worth trading. So I’m looking for the 4h200 which is around the same level as the d50.

Breaking my rules here, but I think I can just about justify it. Besides the 4h100 wouldn’t really be worth the trade.

4h Chart

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 30 June

Daily Chart

NZDUSD Daily Chart – 30 June

Update – Closing the trade following my month call – 5 July

I’ve closed this trade following my call with Charlie. We reviewed the set up and whilst he agreed that the trade was valid pointed out a bullish pattern on the weekly timeframe.

This might be a Jesse Livermore moment – trade your own plan, not someone else’s – but I’ve decided to close the trade out. Charlie suggested closing half (as we’re at the 4h100) and leaving the rest to see if my trade idea plays out but I’ve decided it is ill disciplined to aim for more.

Here’s what Charlie saw. An inverted head and shoulders and the major MAs (200 & 500)

NZDUSD Weekly Chart – 5 Jul. Inverted head and shoulders and close to the w200 & w500.

I’ll keep an eye on the trade and see what happens. I can see a swing higher forming before we get another short signal. It’s always so obvious when you get someone else to point these things out. But again another lesson …

Check the higher timeframes!