Category Archives: Gold

Trade Plan – wc. 03 Dec 18

last updated: 09:00, 03 Dec 2018

Last week review

Last week traded to plan fairly well, however I pulled one USDCAD short order on nerves (didn’t recognise the feeling) expecting a double top. The trade would’ve been a decent profit for me and ended the week in the money again.

Didn’t recognise the feeling which I always seem to get ahead of a profitable set up. Feeling twitchy.

Here’s the lowdown on last week’s trades.

Gold 1h long @ 1222.0, 0.3% risk, result -Β£21.00

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – 3 Dec 18

Gold hourly chart

Gold 1h chart – 3 Dec 18

Generally speaking my analysis is usually right but my timing is often wrong πŸ™‚ this is another example of that.

On the daily I’m looking for a retest of the 1235 level (which this morning looks like it’s on the cards). I saw a 1h DST set up into support at the 1h200 (blue solid line). So a reasonable set up. However price went against me first, and then rallied. The subsequent set up wasn’t there.

In retrospect, I should’ve closed part of the position at the next swing point (red solid line) and held the rest for the move higher. Given the size of my position, I’m not too fussed. It was a speculative play. The next swing point at the daily level blue dotted line, didn’t set up a divergence but with the double test would’ve been a nice place to get long. Sometimes I think I need to be a little more flexible, being a higher timeframe of support I should’ve considered this more.

NZDUSD 4h short @ 0.68864, 0.8% risk, result -Β£91.72 !

This is annoying I got slipped on this trade over the weekend by 32 pips. Not a huge move and sometimes it works in your favour like my last NZDUSD short, but still ended up being a 1.45% risk trade.

In review I think I moved my daily resistance level too soon to the last high and there wasn’t any significant swing points to put emphasis on this level. The 4H price action was just not really budging, I think I felt the writing was on the wall for this one, especially as we had a decent move down on the last swing. Maybe I should’ve waited for a fresh divergence set up to get short.

NZDUSD 4H & Daily chart

NZDUSD 4H chart – 03 Dec 18

NZDUSD – daily chart 03 Dec 18

On review I think this redrawn daily level is the correct one and we may get a swing failure from it now. So I’ll have another bash at shorting today if the set up materialises. Will see how the DXY looks too.

NZDUSD daily chart – 03 Dec 18. Redrawn levels.

USDCAD 4h short @ 1.331, 1% risk, Pulled the order

Huge mistake! I saw the swing failure higher, got my set up on the daily chart, set up a great entry order to go short @ 1.3310 and then got jittery about another retest high, pulled the order and set an alert to see how price action materialised.

Alerts triggered still sat on this looking for more upside before shorting.

Well the weekend gap would’ve worked in my favour, the trade would’ve been a hedge of my NZDUSD position so would’ve offset my risk and meant I ended the week in profit.

Massive mistake. It’s well on the way to target. A miss of around Β£180 profit.

USDCAD daily chart – 03 Dec 18

US Oil 4h long @ 49.15, Didn’t trigger

Not sure if this was a mistake, I have a level which I checked below at 49.4 – 49.15s. I still think we might come back for it, but for now it has rallied. Not sure if this was a missed opportunity. Had a good double divergence set up.

US Oil 4H Chart – 03 Dec 18

Could’ve lost a lot of money buying this ahead of the level so I’m not too bothered. Hopefully this will result in a bigger run when it comes.

Other trades

EURGBP short – Observed a short. Had a nice 3rd test SFP at 0.892s, need to finish the lecture series and back test this system.
AUDUSD short – Good call on this. AUDNZD had more downside. Felt the prior AUDUSD divergence had played out, was looking for fresh divergences.

This week’s focus: Discipline (same as last again)

This week focus is on executing to strategy, journalling and sticking to routine.
Failed again last week. Need to map out all my markets EURAUD looks interesting.


Slightly updated again. Too tired in the evenings after all the life admin etc. Focus on getting up earlier on Monday to get the weekly review and scans done, I’ll do some exercise in the morning too.

Monday morning

Planning & market overview


05.50 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
06.55 – out the door
07.17 – tube in: Read/update trading plan. Coding, journal or learning
08.25 – desk and set up
08.30 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
12.30 – lunch (salad) be flexible, if there’s stuff to do, do it.
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed


06.00 – alarm & daily calisthenics (too tired in the evening)
07.00 – out the door
07:05 – read/update trading plan
08.30 – desk and set up
08.35 – morning scan
09.30 – desk for work
17.00 – leave for home
22.00 – check markets and deal with positions (update trade log)
22.30 – Bed

Key events

Lots for the AUD, CAD and USD. Merkel replacement should be announced Friday – Saturday.

Tue 9.15am GBP – Carney speech
Tue 3.30am AUD – IR decision
Wed 8.30am EUR – Draghi speech
Wed 12.30am AUD – GDP decision
Wed 3pm CAD – IR decision
Wed 3pm USD – ISM PMI figures
Thu 12.30am AUD – retail figures
Thu 1.30pm CAD – Trade balance & poloz speech
Thu 11.45pm USD – Powell speech
Fri 1.30pm CAD – Employment figures
Fri 1.30pm USD – NFP & unemployment

Markets and levels

Current view of FX ratios – interesting to keep in mind. People are hugely long EURAUD on Alpari, so look for a short squeeze. Everyone is pretty long Gold, look for a long squeeze and pinbar to get short.

Alpari FX Ratios – 3 Dec 18

EURUSD – Short set ups @ 1.145s, Buy set ups @ 1.12s
EURGBP – Short set ups @ 0.893s, Buy set ups @ 0.87s (1h – 0.8825s)
EURJPY – Still noisy
EURAUD – Short set ups @ 1.63s, Buy set ups @ 1.53s

GBPUSD – Buy set ups @ 1.27s (maybe 1.266s)
GBPJPY – Buy set ups @ 144s & 142.80s
GBPAUD – Buy SFP set ups @ 1.711

AUDUSD – Short set ups @ 0.74s, Buy set ups @ 0.7215
NZDUSD – This is a reluctant short now. Buy set ups @ 0.6757
USDCAD – Missed this last week. Buy divs @ 1.3141. Short set ups @ 1.335
USDJPY – Buy 1h set ups @ 113.25, Short set ups 114.52

XAUUSD – Short set ups @ 1235 to 1239s
USOIL – Buy set ups @ 49.15 (diverging now)
UK100 – Buy set ups @ 6860


Here’s the outlook for the currency indices…

This week, look for …
Neutral: JXY
Shorts: EXY, BXY


Same as last two weeks, looks bullish in the long-term, will need to watch for buy set ups from support. I think a 111 test is on the cards.

Monthly – Looks like it’ll want to head higher to the TL, pebble on a pond
Weekly – Looks like a move down to 111 is likely before heading higher
Daily – Down to the 111s


Short term sell. Looking at long set ups in the medium term. See the 100s trend-line coming into play as a target

Monthly – Looking for DXY to hit 100 – prior resistance and TL touch (could take months/years)
Weekly – Similar pattern – forming a head and shoulders at around 100
Daily – I can see a move higher to retest the highs before rolling over for a deeper pullback
4h – Looking for slightly more downside PA before we retest the highs. Ultimately I think the TL will break.


Right now expecting Yen to either diverge at the lows and move higher or continue down. This needs monitoring. Longer term lower (much lower – 84s), still look for shorts in to the 89s, longs into divergence @ 87s

Monthly – Looks bearish. Retesting the m50 but rallies have been limited and price is struggling to move higher
Weekly – Weekly looks bearish, more downside on the cards retested the TL goodbye
Daily – Might diverge at the 87s and then retest the highs at 89. Expect this to ultimately roll over. Will need to monitor this for signs which way it might go.


Looking for longs at 126s, ultimately I think it’ll head lower though.

Monthly – Prior TL that will probably get tested at some point in 2019-2020, for now continuation down, need to see if we close below 127s can see a retest of 121s (post Brexit vote lows). This would set up a monthly divergence long.
Weekly – Looking bearish, expect this to move lower. Any longs shouldn’t be too ambitious.
Daily – 126s for a long set up but ultimately lower, don’t get too ambitious with any longs from here.


Slightly more downside to the 74.7s to get long, I think this could rally nicely. Might still get my USDCAD short yet.

Monthly – Hand-railing the m50 would expect it to clear and head to 82 – 84s
Weekly – Two spinning tops on the TL, indicates heading higher
Daily – Maybe more downside from here to the 74.5 level, if so would be a confident buy, otherwise expect continuation


Still more upside for now, up to the d200?, to get short for the longer term

Monthly – Looks like it could set up a nice divergence long, volatility is low so would be a nervy long. Expect more downside to the 63s
Weekly – Bouncing a bit, any re-test of the TL would be a short and the prior resistance in the 73s
Daily – I like the long play up to the 74s for a short (maybe end of the week)

Gold DST Short – 02 Oct 17

Acc Risk: 0.75%
Long: 1274.3
Stop: 1270.3 (40 pips)
Target: 1305 (347 pips, 4h100, 8.67x RR)
Mindset: Nervous, low volatility, probably going to get stopped out.

Stopped out, ready to get back in – 02 Oct 17
Price action didn’t set up for me, missed the move – 12 Oct 17

Very nervous about this one, we’ve got a divergence (a nice one) but the volatility is very low and this is gold!

4H Chart – Set up

Price has touched the 4h500, but it hasn’t really crossed it yet. I can see this heading lower but the divergence looks good to me.

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 02 Oct 17

1H Chart – Confirmation

Got a nice double confirmation, so no excuse.

XAUUSD 1H Chart – 02 Oct 17

Daily Chart

Price has touched the d100.

XAUUSD Daily Chart – 02 Oct 17

Weekly Chart

Price has touched the w500.

XAUUSD Weekly Chart – 02 Oct 17

Monthly Chart

Touching the m5.

XAUUSD Monthly Chart – 02 Oct 17

Stopped out, ready to get back in – 02 Oct 17

Well this is frustrating, as I thought, I got stopped out. Had no real room for error with this trade. I’m primed to get back in though, the market is primed for another divergence now. So just need to be ready.

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 02 Oct 17

Price action didn’t set up for me, missed the move – 12 Oct 17

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 12 Oct 17

NFP results crossed the bands and didn’t retrace back inside so I wouldn’t have been able to get an entry on this. However I was focussing on the USDJPY as that had stopped me out too. It’s annoying as price as gone to my original target with a better RR, will need to take a look at these two examples again, and see if I can learn anything from them.

Stop out examples shorting the USD

Both markets would’ve resulted in a stop out. Given the strong move back, was there a way to get back into these markets?

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 12 Oct 17

USDJPY 4H Chart – 12 Oct 17

Gold DST Short – 6 Sep 17

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Short: 1340.0
Stop: 1344.7 (47 pips)
Target: 1319.0 (210 pips, 4h50, 4.46x RR)


Stopped out – 7 Sep 17

A slightly smaller position size, wanted to keep my positions to Β£40 or under, had previously been Β£30. (I’m thinking I should probably increase this to Β£50 otherwise I’ll never progress much further.) I quite like this divergence on the 4h chart, but we’re near a trendline I had previously drawn on the daily chart.

Try not to put too much emphasis on trendlines though!

4H Chart – set up

A relatively late stage divergence which looks promising.

Gold 4H Chart – 6 Sep 17

1H Chart – confirmation

A double divergence? Would need to see further back to confirm … one sec … yep it’s a double!

Gold 1H Chart – 6 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Close to my trendline but not putting too much emphasis on it. The gap has already been filled.

Gold Daily Chart – 6 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Nothing of note really.

Gold Weekly Chart – 6 Sep 17

Monthly Chart

Into the m100. Might get a bit of ping pong between it and the m50?

Gold Monthly Chart – 6 Sep 17

Stopped out – 7 Sep 17

Not surprised to get stopped out, but I was surprised to get slipped on this trade. I don’t think I should’ve been, reviewed the price action on MT4 and the slippage didn’t look justified. I checked with Charlie and on his chart the slippage was there, so I’ve left it, but I got slipped 20 pips and took an additional loss of Β£10.

Not much money, but it’s still a 20% addition to the original amount risked.

XAUUSD 4h Chart – 7 Sep 17

Here’s the video replay of that slippage – original stop was 1344.7 actual stop was 1346.6.

What’s worse is the next divergence that came in I missed the set up – on holiday – so I didn’t get to trade it and run it down to the 4h100. I did set an order hoping to get triggered end of the day but cancelled it over the weekend (worried about gaps – probably shouldn’t have). Either way, the move went without me.

Gold DST long – 11 Jul 17

Acc Risk: 0.45%
Long: 1210.4
Stop: 1204.1 (63 pips)
Target: 1230.3 (199 pips, d500, 3.15x RR)
Mindset: Think we’re heading for an upper test of the monthly trendline

Update – Closed my trade manually again – 12 Jul
Update – Price hit original target – 16 Jul

Saw a Tip TV Gold analysis video by Alessio Rastani that matched a DST set up I was looking at, so I was feeling more confident.

As for targets the analysis on the daily chart makes me think we can hit 1230. I often see price action ping pong between the two nearby major MAs. so I’m looking for a d200 test.

4H Chart – setup

Pretty textbook entry down to the lower trendline.

Gold 4H Chart – 11 Jul

1H Chart – confirmation

Gold 1H Chart – 11 Jul

Daily Chart

Looking for a d200 test after bouncing around the d500.

Gold Daily Chart – 11 Jul

Closed the trade manually again – 12 Jul

Just closed my trade manually @ 1221 (110 pips, 4h50, 1.74x RR).

I realised I wasn’t trading my system properly, I was trading my opinion bolstered by watching a youtube video! If I don’t trade my system properly I can’t be sure if my profitability or lack of it is justified.

Until I build some serious experience, I shouldn’t be trading my opinion. So I closed the trade at the 4h50 because I have a single divergence.

I still think price could head higher but that’s for someone else to worry about.

Gold 4H Chart – 14 Jul

Update – Price hit original target – 16 Jul

Not sure if this matters, part of me was thinking I should’ve kept to the original plan, but I’m glad I kept disciplined. Just have the doubt about whether I could’ve actually held on to this trade. I was very keen to close it.

Gold 4H Chart – 16 Jul

Gold DST Short – 7 Jun

Acc Risk: 0.45%
Short: 1292.8
Stop: 1297.1 (43 pips)
Target: 1271.8 (4h50, 210 pips, 4.8 RR)
Mindset: OK. Expecting a couple of stop outs before this might work out.

Spotted this short set up and like it because we have the potential for divergences across multiple timeframes. My only reservation is the price action hasn’t made a big spike high, I would feel much safer if it had, but you’ve got to be in it to win it so I opened a position.

If the divergence also occurs on the daily, I will look to add.

4H Chart – set up

Gold 4H Chart – 7 June

Here’s the divergence I’m keen on. The reason I like this trade is on the higher timeframes.

Monthly Chart

Gold Monthly Chart – 7 June

We’re testing a very long term trendline. It’s been recently tested (relatively) but I would expect a reaction to it before we were to break it. I’m looking for some monthly hand-railing.

Weekly Chart

Gold weekly chart – 7 June

Similar to the chart above, I noticed a slight narrowing of the MACD and Signal lines (shown by the histogram divergence). I expect the price to come lower and react to this.

Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart – 7 June

Although we’ve broken my trend line – I drew it so I don’t put too much emphasis on it! If price comes down into the bands, we’ll have a daily divergence adding conviction to my trade. The MAs are all getting into order so I don’t imagine we’ll get much of a pull back. Maybe to 1240.

Hourly Chart

Gold Hourly Chart – 7 June

The hourly chart shows a divergence and potentially a double divergence forming. I’m late to this divergence but I’ve got a level here that I would’ve got at the time so I’m taking the trade. Price might go a little higher, I’m prepared for it, just hope I can get back in, unlike my FTSE trade.

Woohoo another winner – 8 June

It’s great to bank another winner so close to my last one and it’s a decent size too. The trade was not perfectly managed though. I was late to update my limit order (I was trading the 4h50) and when I saw price coming down to 50 I was frantically logging in to update my order (not great).

I was actually intending to move it lower (as the daily divergence has now confirmed) but I didn’t get there in time and the order was closed @ 1273.5. Still, pleased with the trade, it’s a 4.5x RR trade πŸ™‚

Here’s the chart. I may be very lucky to have got out where I did. Although price has moved a long way from the bands so might be good for a run?

Gold 4H Chart – 8 June

Will I get the daily short? – 9 June

Price has paused at my exit level before heading lower. I thought I might not get my daily entry (even though the chart shows the 5ma touch – I don’t think it would’ve until the candle close pulled the MA down). Not sure what’ll happen next but I’ll keep watching it.

4H Chart

Gold 4H Chart – 9 June

Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart – 9 June

It makes me feel nervous to be trading around a breakout zone. Probably means I should be more confident?

Gold DST Long – 3 May

Acc Risk: 0.55%
Long: 1254.5
Stop: 1251.1 (34 pips)
Target: 1268.0 (57 pips, 4h50, 1.67 RR)
Mindset: Feeling positive. Quite like the set up on this.

Spotted this divergence into the 4h200. Decided to take it because the divergence coincided with a test around the 4h200 and a daily trendline. Price was also near a w20. The RR wasn’t great, but my mind has been on trading the set up (even if it was reluctantly!)

4H Chart – set up and stop out!

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 3 May

I got stopped out of this trade pretty quickly – by lunchtime price was moving down and stopped me out.

Catching up – 5 May

This trade didn’t work out so well for me – shame because it was technically very neat. Here’s the daily chart and the weekly chart just touched the w20.

XAUUSD D Chart – 3 May

XAUUSD & EURUSD Short 27 Mar – 13 Apr 17

Total Acc Risk: 0.5% => 1.1%

Acc Risk: 0.2% => 0.5%
Entry: 1x 1.0864, 2x 1.08750 (market order)
Stop: 3x 1.0915 (51 pips)
Target 1: 2x 1.0787 (4h50, 77 pips 1.5 RR)
Target 2: 1x 1.0690 (4h100 & d20, 174 pips, 3.4 RR)

Acc Risk: 0.3% => 0.6%
Entry: 2x 1253.8, 2x 1258.0 (market order)
Stop: 1263.3 (Avg. 77 pips)
Target: 4x 1241 (4h50, 128 pips, 1.35 RR)


XAUUSD order triggered, now in the full trade – 28 Mar
Cancelled the remaining EURUSD Order – 29 Mar
closed some positions – 30 Mar
have added to my gold position – 5 Apr
NFP tomorrow, feeling ominous – 6 Apr
Stopped out – 7 Apr
Still tracking Gold – 11 Apr
Gold heading higher – 13 Apr

This is a more complex trade for me. I have a few xyzUSD pair shorts either setting up or currently diverging. So I’ve split my exposure to the USD across the best looking set ups (EURUSD and XAUUSD). I feel uneasy about these two trades, I feel obliged to take them as my scan shows so many correlations right now.

The problem I’m struggling with; I can’t seem to get a run of winning trades going and it feels like I am beginning to hemorrhage money. I’m desperate to close my reasonable profits on my GBPJPY long, it’s close to target, but that just isn’t disciplined.

I have to remind myself that I am taking these two trades because my monthly reviews show when I pass on divergences, I will usually regret it in hindsight. However, the long USD trade seems so obvious to me right now.

Of those set ups I have chosen XAUUSD and EURUSD to go short on, primarily because the charts seem to have the cleanest set ups (i.e. touching long term MAs and diverging on the 4H and almost on the Daily timeframes – sort of πŸ™‚ !).

Here are the set ups.

Gold Daily & 4H Charts

Gold Daily & 4H Chart – 27 Mar

The 4H divergence is pretty clear, the daily one isn’t but I’ve mentioned this before in my monthly trade reviews – it seems as though MAs distort some of the divergences either pulling or pushing price so the signal doesn’t set up.

Regardless, I am trading this on the 4H divergence – aiming for the 50MA. It’s a pretty crap RR when you consider the 50MA will be moving higher, but still in my favour for now.

EURUSD Daily & 4H Charts

EURUSD Daily & 4H Chart – 27 Mar

The weekly chart is very close to touching the 50MA, the monthly is close to the 20MA.

Trade set up

Across the two pairs, I’ve got a full position on both at a little over 1%. ~ 1/3 of the position is open now in each market, the remaining ~ 2/3s is to be opened by order at the upper bands (I chose the upper bands because the prior candlesticks were spiky and long bodied so the upper bands coincide with about 50% of the candlestick body).

I’m not totally comfortable with these trades, but I need to trade the system – not my opinion. The proximity of the MAs on the higher timeframe does worry me. I need to be more like Chirrut from Star Wars. He has absolute faith in the force and I need to have faith in my system’s probability. πŸ™‚

If Chirrut was a trade he’d probably say…

I’m trading the system and the system is with me, I am trading the system and the system is with me, I am trading the system and the system is with me …

Trust in the system. I am trading the system and the system is with me

Hahaha, I’m such a dumb ass.

XAUUSD order triggered, now in the full trade – 28 Mar

My additional gold order has triggered at 1258. So 2/3rds of my dollar position is open now. The remaining 1/3, order to short the EURUSD, doesn’t look like it’ll get hit.

Cancelled the remaining EURUSD Order – 29 Mar

Mini update, price has now hit the 4h50 so I’ve cancelled the remaining EURUSD order to get short. As some of the move has now played out, there’s no need to add to the position if price comes higher.

As we’ve got a double divergence in play, I’ve kept the more ambitious 4h100 target and ditched the 4h50 target.

Closed some positions – 30 Mar

Some good news, but bad trading, today. Both of these positions have been doing OK; however, I’ve been undecided about my targets and not been moving my limit orders inline with my MAs regularly.

Being honest, it’s been a combination of being forgetful and dog tired. I managed to catch another cold off the boy and he’s not been sleeping well so I’ve not been on my A game. This time though, I’ve been lucky to be watching when price has hit my targets, so I’ll accept the spoils and consider this a lesson learnt.

Taking some profits

My EURUSD trade is now closed – we touched the 4h100 around early lunchtime. My Gold trade is partially closed, I took half profits following the USD GDP figures move down to the 4h50. Not a big win on either, but not terrible.

The remainder of my Gold trade is being held for the 4h200 now. I originally planned to close the whole position at the 4h50 but price action has been slow and the 4h50 has moved up and up. So, I’ve held half of the position open, because I would’ve been dissatisfied with a move lower that I wasn’t in.

Here’s the latest charts.


EURUSD 4H Chart – 30 Mar. Pink line is the 4h100.


XAUUSD 4H Chart – 30 Mar. Purple line is the 4h200.

It feels good to have cut my risk and be out of some of those positions! I can move on to the next opportunity.

Here’s what I’m left with now.

Acc Risk: 0.3%
Entry: 1258.0
Stop: 1263.3 (53 pips)
Target: 1233.7 (4h200, 243 pips, 4.58 RR)

Have added to my Gold position – 5 Apr

Gold has been holding up and has made another test of the d200. I wasn’t surprised to see it and fortunately for me it has made another 4h divergence. So we have a double divergence in play. So I’ve added to my position at 1253. the 4h100 has also crossed the 4h200 so I’ve split my targets to test both (as they are close by and the 4h200 hasn’t been tested in a while)

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Short: 1256.3 (Avg price)
Stop: 1263.3 (70 pips)
Target 1: 1240 (4h100, 160 pips, 2.32 RR)
Target 2: 1234 (4h200, 223 pips, 3.18 RR)

I did get a screenshot of this but late on in the day. I was working to get ready for a call with Charlie. Here’s how it is looking. Looks like it might hit my target soon!

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 5 Apr

Just noticed my targets are both on the 4h100. Ops better update that! So many mistakes lately – I’m not putting enough dedicated time into this – it’s always rushed lately. Need to be better at that.

NFP tomorrow, feeling ominous – 6 Apr

The ADP figures were a strong beat and I feel that whatever happens now NFP will be a disappointment, surely a good figure is priced in so anything short of excellent will be a disappointment. We’ll see at lunchtime I guess.

Stopped out – 7 Apr

Trump announces an air strike on Syria. No doubt he mentioned some very bad people – sad.

Well I never got to those NFP figures, Trump launched a missile strike overnight and that seems to have spiked Gold higher (to be expected.) I’m not too fussed about this, not the sort of thing you can predict and so long as risk is managed it’s going to happen.

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 7 Apr 17

Price is potentially forming another divergence (double this time). I expect with the NFP figures we’ll get the set up. This set up is on the daily and 4h timeframe. I think I’ll be waiting towards the end of the day to trade this. NFP is due out at 1.30 and the candlestick on the 4h FXCM chart closes at 2pm (which might be a bit close!?) IDC 4h candlestick closes an hour later at 3pm so I might wait for that to get my read on the market.

Still tracking gold – 11 Apr

Following Friday I missed an entry to get short again on Gold. TBH I was pretty fed up with the price action and was happy to leave the trade and wait for fresh eyes on Sunday, at the back of my mind was a slight doubt that was the correct decision, but I left it nonetheless. Well turns out it wasn’t, Friday evening triggered the trade to get short, I didn’t think much would happen until Monday and I didn’t need to be holding risk over the weekend for no reason so didn’t check the market.

Being a double divergence the target would’ve been the 4h100, which got a great touch soon after!

XAUUSD 4H Chart – 11 Apr

I guess price action is crap, until it isn’t!

Price is heading higher, and looks to be setting up a daily divergence. Shame the 4h won’t now. The double divergence was much nicer. It’ll be really interesting to see what price action is like over the next two days.

Gold heading higher – 13 Apr

Just keeping my eye on this – for now the trade is over, if we get a sudden reversal the daily chart could still set up but the price action seems very bullish right now. There was a lot of hand-railing of the d200 and the small pullbacks were quickly bought up, so I guess the writing was on the wall for Gold shorts.

Either way, we got some pips out of this, on to the next trade.

XAUUSD Daily Chart – 13 Apr

Gold DST Short – 27 Feb

Account Risk: 0.7%
Short: 2x @ 1254.8 & 3x @ 1258.7
Stop: 1266 (112 & 80 pips)
T1: 2x @ 1235 (198 pips, 1.75x RR). 4H 100MA & Daily 21EMA.
T2: 3x @ 1200 (587 pips, 7.3x RR). 4H 500MA, Daily 50MA & Daily 500MA
Mindset: Pretty even

Update: Part of order triggered – 1 Mar
Update: Limit order reached – 2 Mar

Been trying to improve on my routine for checking the markets and setting alerts. I just had an alert on Gold which has spiked up and come straight back down – across the bands. I’m waiting for a retest of the 8EMA to get short and then another re-test of the upper band to get short some more (building my position). The position size for each part is slightly different because the risk is less with the upper band set up.

The good thing about this trade is the two chart set up divergence on the daily and 4H charts. So I’ve tried to optimise my entries by going short for a smaller position on the 8EMA and a slightly bigger position on the upper band.

The targets are both set by the daily chart being the 21EMA and 50MA (which correspond with 4H MAs for now)

Here’s the two chart set ups.

Daily chart

Gold Daily Chart – 27 Feb. Marginal divergence from early Feb until now.

4H chart

Divergence and price action put in a decent down bar – crossing the bands.

It’s just an order for now but it’ll be interesting to see if I can get filled! Here are the details…

Gold Order Details – 27 Feb

First part of trade triggered

The first part of my trade was triggered. Price moved away from my entry and after initially moving my order down, I decided to wait and see if price action would come back up to my original order levels (partially because it had already hit the 4H 21EMA). So I put the orders back where they were. I was happy to take a lose at those levels for a run down to the Daily 21EMA.

Price came within 1 pip from filling the second part of my order, but it didn’t get hit so here’s where I am currently.

Account Risk: 0.3%
Short: @ 1254.8
Stop: 1266 (112 pips)
Target: Daily 21EMA @ 1233 (208 pips, 1.8x RR).
Mindset: Good – albeit feeling impatient. Dunno why!?

Price so very nearly hit my limit order, but pulled away since. I am looking for a reversal now down to my order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this get stopped out now and another divergence set up on the higher timeframe.

One other thing to note: it’s great having a divergence show on the daily timeframe and therefore have a legitimate daily target to aim for. it makes managing the target so much easier.

Gold 4H Chart – 01 Mar 17

Limit order triggered

Well the price has yo-yo’ed around but it has now hit my order. I am pretty pleased with the trade, it’s a shame the other portion wasn’t part of the trade because I’d like to still see if we can run the remainder to the daily 50MA.

Here’s the final trade chart.

Gold 4H Chart – 2 Mar


Overall I’m really happy with the way I traded this:

  • Didn’t chase the market to get an entry
  • Didn’t get upset about my order not getting triggered
  • Didn’t panic when price missed my target and came against me
  • Didn’t close my position in frustration

Gold DST Short – 9 Feb 2017

Account Risk: 0.5%
Short:(1x & 2x) @ 1241.5
Stop: @ 1247.1
T1: 1x @ 1230 (2x RR)
T2: 2x @ 1217 (4x RR)
Mindset: πŸ™‚ Doubt it’ll work out, but happy to pay for the opportunity.

Update 1 – T1 Hit – 8 Feb
Update 2 – Closed the trade – 9 Feb

I’ve been routinely checking the markets for potential set ups and saw this on the Daily chart which looked like a set up was potentially building to get short on Gold. It looked like price was also running into a cluster of resistance which meant that any trade could well not work out, moving higher and hitting a stop.

Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart – 06 Feb. Divergence setting up?

Weekly Chart

Gold Weekly Chart – 6 Feb. Resistance levels above.

The Daily set up didn’t materialise – price went higher – but it did develop on the 4H chart.

Four Hour Chart

When I checked this chart (a couple of days later), price had already closed inside the bands and moved higher so I had a nice level to get short with a marginal divergence.

Gold 4H Chart – 9 Feb. A marginal divergence has set up.

I doubt this trade will work out given:

  • The four or five resistance levels slightly above price
  • Gold is spikey as hell and likes to test levels

For now, the trade is on. Short @ 1241.5. Two positions: one small, one medium. My plan is to run the small position to the trend line (near the 21MA) and the bigger position to the 55MA, which hasn’t been tested for a while. The idea with this is the first target will cover some of my risk if price doesn’t get down to the 55MA before moving higher.

Slight deviation from my normal approach but the trend channel is pretty clear and makes for a good target as it’s slightly further than the 21MA.

Update – T1 Hit – 9 Feb 2017

Price broke down almost straight after I placed the trade. Very lucky with the timing!

My first target got hit pretty quick. Now running the rest to the 55MA. 56 pips banked, albeit at a tiny position.

Update – T2 Hit – 10 Feb 2017

My second target was hit early this morning. BUT, I wasn’t up in time to move my limit order higher (to track the 55MA) so I didn’t get filled! Ops. As the market has already tested the MA I just closed my position when I got to work.

Final Gold 4H Chart – 9 Feb. Not the best execution but an OK trade.

Pretty poor mistake. Gave back 40 odd pips! Sloppy.

The good thing is, I didn’t get stressed and rush about to close my position. I kept it together πŸ™‚ It’s another lesson learnt, set alerts ahead of your targets when you’re not going to be around. I wonder how I would’ve been following a string of losing trades? (Would probably need to upgrade that gif!)

Final RR was 2x and 2.9x (should’ve been 3.5x!!!) It’s good to be closing some 2x+ RR trades though.

What was good about this trade was the better entry allowed me to up the position size without risking more money. So I’m happy enough with the trade.

Gold DST Short – 23 Jan 2017

Acc Risk: 0.5%
Sell: 2x @ 1212.6
Stop: 2x @ 1221.6 (90 pips)
T1: 1x @ 1206.3 (96 pips, 1x R:R)
T2: 1x @ 1187 (256 pips, 2.6x R:R)

Update – T1 hit – 25 Jan
Update – T2 hit – 25 Jan

Saw this set up on Gold doing some back-testing. I doubt it will work out given the MACD divergence is a step down and the Daily and Weekly charts both have moving average targets nearby @ 1230. However, I’m trading the set ups I see, trusting in the probabilities from back-testing. Will post an update once I see what’s happened.

4H Chart – The Set up

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Update #1 – 25 Jan

First target has been hit, second target still a way away but rising which is skewing the RR. The T1 ended up being a sub 1x RR. Something to test in future is whether it would be better to go for a static target such as the prior high/low?

One thing I have noticed is how the divergence is now setting up to go long. It’s a different kind of divergence to the pure DST divergences I’ve back-tested so I won’t trade it. But I suspect if we get a close back inside the bands there’s a reasonable chance the T2 won’t get hit.

DST Update – XAUUSD 4H Short – 25 Jan

Update #2 – 25 Jan

The candlestick didn’t close inside the bands and the second target got hit shortly after T1 was hit, with a nice move down. Ended up being a 196 pip move (2.1x RR trade). Not bad, I’m quite lucky really that price did move down to my target relatively quickly, given the MA was creeping up.

Gold DST Trade 25 Jan 2017. T2 hit nicely, order was just ahead of the 100 MA.

Trade Review

I spent most of the time thinking this wouldn’t really work out, so I’m glad I ignored my inner doubt πŸ™‚ The trade was actually a pretty clean trade in the end. I think if the higher timeframes had been aligned I would’ve been happier to take the trade.

My position size was really small and I’m frustrated that it didn’t really win me much considering it was a few hundred pips. Next time I think I’ll up it to 1%.

Looking at the chart now, Gold found support at 1180 and it looks to me like it could set up for a retest with divergence to go long at 1170-1180, we’ll see. (That would coincide with the lower band on the weekly chart.)

Gold 4H Chart – 30 Jan. Looking for the next set up.