Oil DST Short – 21 & 26 Sep 18

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Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 50.57
Stop: 51.15 (58 pips)
Target: 48.26 (d50, 231 pips, 4x RR)
Mindset: A little nervous again, low volatility in a traditionally spikey market.

Update

Chose the wrong instrument to trade! Trade closed scratch – 21 Sep
Found another entry – 26 Sep
Stopped out – 28 Sep
Some time later – 06 Oct

There’s an interesting pattern in Oil that I quite like a divergence forming on a couple of timeframes. So taken a small short. Here’s the low down.

Weekly Chart

Crossed the w50 and previously air-kissed the w100. Can see a pullback to retest my green trendline.

Oil Weekly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Divergence off the Aug high.

Oil Daily Chart – 21 Sep 17

4H Chart – set up

Double divergence.

Oil 4H Chart – 21 Sep 17

1H Chart – confirmation

Hourly divergence confirming the trade.

Oil Hourly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Chose the wrong instrument to trade! Trade closed scratch – 21 Sep

I chose the Nymex Daily Futures which settles each day at 7.30pm! Doh, meant to trade the Nov 17 futures market. I’ve done this before – I blame the new ETX UI, confusing as hell. Rather the re-enter I’m going to wait for a new divergence to form. The price action seems range-bound and holding so I think we’ll get another divergence.

I should probably get back in as the analysis is the same.

Found another entry – 26 Sep

Looks like I’ve been lucky enough to get another entry on this. Price did hold up as I thought and we’ve moved another leg higher. We know have a marginal daily divergence and a double 4h divergence. We don’t have the 1h confirming but I’m taking the daily and 4H this time. A break of the rules so probably a mistake!


Acc risk: 0.6%
Short: 52.10 (via an order)
Stop: 52.51 (41 pips)
Target: 49.50 (4h200, 310 pips, 7.5x RR)
Mindset: Uneasy about the rule break but think the trade will be worthwhile.

4H Chart

4H Oil Chart – 26 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Daily Oil Chart – 26 Sep 17

Stopped out – 28 Sep

Just got stopped out on this trade, looks like I shouldn’t have broken my rules after all. The important thing now is to monitor the set up and see if we get another divergence to trade short. Looking back at my set up charts the daily divergence didn’t materialise so there was no confirmation of the 4H chart.

I should’ve waited for the hourly. There’s also not so much going on, on other timeframes, so in retrospect I should’ve waited for more reasons to get involved.

USOIL 4H Chart – 28 Sep 17

Some time later – 06 Oct

This is annoying, price reversed quickly and just ran off. I put an alert in for any retrace, but it didn’t happen. 🙁

Oil 4H Chart – 06 Oct 17

USDJPY DST Short – 27 Sep 17

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Acc Risk: 0.7%
Short: 112.85
Stop: 113.33 (48 pips)
Target: 111.00 (185 pips, 4h500, 3.85x RR)
Mindset: Optimistic

Updates

Stopped out on NFP results

I’ve triangulated this trade in with the CADJPY and USDCAD. CADJPY I’m already short, USDCAD is into a reversal zone so therefore I should be short this divergence on the USDJPY. Let’s see how it plays out.

4H Chart

USDJPY 4H Chart – 27 Sep 17

Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart – 27 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

USDJPY Weekly Chart – 27 Sep 17

Monthly Chart

USDJPY Monthly Chart – 27 Sep 17

Stopped out on NFP results

I’m fine about being stopped out – I knew it was coming – I should probably get smarter about my stops. The reversal, if it sticks, seems quite predictable. Dollar index is diverging as it ran into the 4h500 and the Yen index is bouncing off a lower daily trendline. I’ve set a couple of alerts looking for a re-entry inside the bands.

USDJPY 4H Chart

USDJPY 4H Chart – 06 Oct 17

DXY 4H Chart

DXY 4H Chart – 6 Oct 17

JXY Daily Chart

JXY Daily Chart – 6 Oct 17

Annoyingly this divergence has crossed the bands and doesn’t look like it’s going to retrace. 😐

Monthly Review – September 2017

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Starting balance: £7,083.36
Target return: £247.91 (3.5%)
Actual return: £120.93 (1.7%)
Win rate: 50%
Closing balance: £7,204.29

Still not been a great month. Holiday and renovations got in the way of things this time! I’ve really only been trading the odd day and this last week, so I’ve been lucky to make any money really. Very sporadic and you’ve got to take all of the set ups to really maximise the strategy performance.

I have started to log my missed trades this last week more diligently so that I can see whether I am dodging the right trades and of the ones I miss, why I am missing them. Hopefully the October review will have some findings I can implement.

September’s Goals

Here are the goals I set myself at the start of the month.

  • Maintain a 40% win rate – Success
  • Do at least one scan every trading day – Miss
  • Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them – Miss

Daily performance

All SignalsWin Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Winners337.5%00%
Losers225%00%
Still live225%00%
Missed112.5%00%
Total Pips 162-0-

4H performance

All signalsWin Loss %Conf. signals Win Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Winners1453.8%1055.6%350%
Losers1142.3%844.4%350%
Still live13.8%00%00%
Missed 00%00%00%
Total Pips 1,150-954-176-

September trade log

A mixed bunch. I shouldn’t have taken the S&P500 short, not on my plan to trade that market. The gold trade should’ve been followed by a 200 pip winner but I didn’t check each morning. The Oil trade would’ve been a loser had I not traded the wrong market.

#DateStgyMktPosAcc RskOpenStopStp PipsTgtTgt PipsR:RCloseFnl PipsFnl R:RDaysP&L (£)
101 Sep 17DSTNZDUSDLong0.75%0.71620.7125370.7261992.670.7240782.1685.53
204 Sep 17DSTAUDCADLong0.6%0.98650.9846190.9919542.840.9909442.32266.83
306 Sep 17DSTEURGBPLong0.75%0.91500.9127230.9214642.780.9127-23-11-41.30
406 Sep 17DSTGoldShort0.5%13401344.74713192104.461346.6-66-1.42-53.44
518 Sep 17DSTSPXShort0.6%2501.22506.55023481535302506.5-50-12-40.00
621 Sep 17DSTOilShort0.6%50.5751.155848.26231450.57-401-1.80
721 Sep 17DSTCADJPYShort0.6%91.2091.7555--------
822 Sep 17DSTGBPJPYShort0.65%152.15152.9984149.482673.1150.181972.344107.73

Miss of the month – Gold

Down to my poor routine, I got stopped out, got another divergence entry to go short but wasn’t around to trade it. Frustrating because it corresponded to a trendline touch and a test of the m100.

4H Divergence Chart

Double divergence into the trendline confirmed on the 1H chart.

Gold 4H Chart – 27 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Not much to report here.

Gold Daily Chart – 27 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Same – not much going on.

Gold Weekly Chart – 27 Sep 17

Monthly Chart

Run into w100.

Gold Monthly Chart – 27 Sep 17

One last point – I haven’t heard anyone not being positive about the future of Gold. However my trendline in red looks fairly bad for Gold. Price has crossed it – retested it and I can see a move down to the m200 around 1000 area.

I’ll only trade the divergences I see, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold head lower.

New goals

Keep them the same plus one other which is the goal I most want to complete next month.

  • Trade at least 50% of the confirmed divergences I see.
  • Maintain a 40% win rate
  • Do at least one scan every trading day
  • Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them

Monthly Review – August 2017

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Starting balance: £6,967.51
Target return: £243.86 (3.5%)
Actual return: £115.85 (1.66%)
Win rate: 100%
Closing balance: £7,083.29

Not a great month for me, the stats above look OK but I only took two trades and they just happened to both win. The renovations and routine are again my two biggest blockers to trading. When work is busy and the house renovations are still on-going, I find it very difficult to fit everything in.

I also took some holiday and missed some class set-ups on my birthday.

August’s Goals

Here are the goals I set myself at the start of the month.

  • Maintain a 40% win rate – Success
  • Do at least one daily scan – Miss
  • Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them – Miss
  • Up my position size to 0.75% – Success, although in the end I just upped it by £10.

Daily performance

The strategy didn’t do great this month, mainly due to trending markets. I was lucky to dodge these set ups.

All SignalsWin Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Winners1100%00%
Losers00%00%
Still live00%00%
Missed00%00%
Total Pips 192-0-

4H performance

Not a great set of figures for the strategy or me, but I did out-perform the win rate!

All signalsWin Loss %Conf. signals Win Loss %Signals TakenWin Loss %
Winners2246.8%2052.6%2100%
Losers2553.2%1847.4%00%
Still live00%00%00%
Missed 00%00%00%
Total Pips 1,012-1,031-111-

August trade log

#DateStgyMktPosAcc RskOpenStopStp PipsTgtTgt PipsR:RCloseFnl PipsFnl R:RDaysP&L (£)
124 Aug 17DSTNZDUSDLong0.75%0.72180.7185330.72796120.7288702.1686.23
203 Aug 17DSTEURUSDShort0.45%1.18681.1916481.164524351.1827410.852329.62

Miss of the month – US Oil

Hindsight is such a great thing, I noticed this US Oil trade during my September scans, it’s not A grade but it was a decent set up and oil can really move so it would’ve been worth trading IMO.

4H Divergence Chart

I noticed the divergence was forming on a trendline which I had recently drawn.

4 Hourly Oil Chart

1H Confirmation

A decent double divergence had formed on the hourly chart.

Hourly Oil Chart

Daily Chart

Not much on the daily chart, but I did notice the proximity to the d500 which was a case against this trade.

Daily Oil Chart

Weekly Chart

The prior weeks leading up to this trade were all doji type bars, indicating a move higher. We were also handrailing the green trendline.

Weekly Oil Chart

Would’ve been a good trade to run to the 4h200 & d200.

New goals

  • Maintain a 40% win rate
  • Do at least one scan every trading day
  • Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them

GBPJPY DST Short – 22 Sep 17

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Acc risk: 0.65%
Short: 152.15
Stop: 152.99 (84 pips)
Target: 149.48 (4h50, 267 pips, 3.1x RR)
Mindset: A little uncomfortable as this is my second JPY trade and there’s a Brexit speech due today

Updates

Reached target nice and quickly – 25 Sep

I’m also in a CADJPY trade and whilst I like this set up too, I’m a little nervous about my exposure given what’s going on with North Korea. If a war becomes real, I can’t imagine the Yen will still be the safe haven people treat it as. However, I trade what I see and try my best to control the risk.

Here’s the set up …

Weekly Chart

We’ve run into the w500 but can still see this going further. We’ve only just touched it.

GBPJPY Weekly Chart – 22 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Wasn’t sure if this was a divergence from Nov/Dec 2016, but decided not given the distance between the price moves. We’ve crossed the d500 which could make a good target for a bounce?

GBPJPY Daily Chart – 22 Sep 17

4H Chart – set up

Not a perfect divergence, the gap is quite big, and the MACD cross slight, but given that:

  1. The higher timeframes have run into MAs
  2. All other Yen pairs I follow are diverging
  3. There’s hourly divergence confirming the set up

I’m still interested.

GBPJPY 4H Chart – 22 Sep 17

1H Chart – confirmation

Not a perfect divergence confirmation, but it’s valid.

GBPJPY H Chart – 22 Sep 17

Reached target nice and quickly thanks to North Korea – 25 Sep

North Korea propaganda poster. It reads: “Our answer!” KCNA

It’s always handy to have a trade end quickly, especially when the moving average you’re aiming for is 200 pips away! GBPJPY hit my target at the end of the day following a unofficial war declaration by the US against North Korea. For some reason despite the Japanese siding with the US and being next door to North Korea, any mention of war seems positive for the Yen!?!

Here’s the closing chart.

GBPJPY 4H Chart – 25 Sep 17

CADJPY DST Short – 21 Sep 17

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Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 91.20
Stop: 91.75 (55 pips)
Target: TBC – depends if the weekly divergence forms but at least 89.80
Mindset: Mixed

Updates

Wedge forming on the hourly with divergence – 22 Sep
Closing part of the trade – 13 Oct
Taking my first hedge – 15 Oct
Ops – 15 Oct
Hedging again – 17 Oct

Seeing a lot of divergence on the JPY pairs, some stronger than others I really like this one because the daily and weekly charts are diverging. So I can see a big target here, especially as the last weekly divergence didn’t make the w50. Coming into CPI figures I’m hopeful that we’ll get some movement in my direction but can easily see this stopping me out for a 2nd attempt.

Monthly Chart

Testing the m50.

CADJPY Monthly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Weekly divergence has formed but not yet played out.

CADJPY Weekly Chart – 21 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Daily double divergence in play

CADJPY Daily Chart – 21 Sep 17

4H Chart – set up

Single divergence – possible double may form.

CADJPY 4H Chart – 21 Sep 17

Hourly Chart

Double divergence confirmation.

CADJPY H Chart – 21 Sep 17

Wedge forming on the hourly with divergence – 22 Sep

Noticed there’s a wedge forming on the hourly chart – which has some short divergence. We’re heading into CAD CPI news, so I’m expecting an answer on this trade sooner or later.

CADJPY Hourly Chart – 22 Sep 17

I’m a little nervous about holding this position over the weekend, with N Korea firing missiles over Japan it’s pretty likely we can see gaps over the weekend against me.

Closing part of the trade – 13 Oct

It’s been a while since I updated this post, the trade has been meandering down to my target, but it’s taking ages. My charges are creeping up all the time, now about 10% of the total profit is on charges alone! I might try trading a currency futures market instead of the rolling daily charts.

CADJPY 4h chart – 13 Oct 17

Price has come down to the 4h200 which also corresponded with a trenline, I had an oppotunity to close here earlier in the week but I didn’t choosing to hold for the d50. However I can see divergence creeping into the chart and we’ve not had a test of the upper wedge for a long time. So I’ve decided to protect my position.

I wanted to close half of my position here but minimum position sizes mean I have to close 2/3rds. So I’m banking 153 pips now. Will hold the remainder and watch price action. Still undecided about whether to target the d50 or w50/w500.

just an observation here, my indecision about my target probably means I’m going to pick the nearer one

Taking my first hedge – 15 Oct

We’ve got a long divergence confirmed, we’re near the d50 but far enough away for me to take a chance. It’s pretty marginal but I find in patterns like this the divergences often get skewed. I also see this when price almost stretches down to touch an MA, the divergence doesn’t technically form but a divergence still happens.

CADJPY 4H Chart – 15 Oct 17

Here’s the divergence, I’m looking to hedge my position now, taking a smaller 0.6% position size long, looking for a break of the 4h100 (as it’s been recently tested – air kiss?) and a move up to the upper trendline. I’ll keep my tiny 0.2% remaining position open.

Ops – 15 Oct

ETX didn’t let me hold two positions. It closed my short and netted out my long. Not what I wanted. I thought this might happen so I adjusted the position size slightly to compensate, but now I’m only long!


Acc risk: 0.5%
Long: 89.73
Stop: 89.25 (48 pips)
Target: TBC – 4h100/PH as a minimum (60 pips)
Mindset: Excited to be taking my first hedge!

Hedging again – 17 Oct

CADJPY 4h Chart – 17 Oct 17

Well got stopped out of the CADJPY long, price has now air-kissed the d50 and come back inside the wedge. The set up is still there so I think we’re good for another go at this.

Long again at 89.45 stop below the low plus the spread at 88.88. Target is for a break of the 4h100v to the prior high (PH) and a test of the upper trendline around 91.


Acc risk: 0.6%
Long: 89.45
Stop: 88.88 (57 pips)
Target: TBC – PH as a minimum (87 pips)
Mindset: Still like the set up, feel more positive about this one.

From here I’ll look to get short again, daily might well set up for another divergence short. Weekly chart might not though!

S&P DST Short – 18 Sep 17

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Acc Risk: 0.6%
Short: 2501.5
Stop: 2506.5 (50 pips)
Target: 2348 (w50, 1535 pips!, 30x RR)
Mindset: The low volatility concerns me. I can’t ignore the many divergences I see across different timeframes

Updates

Stopped out on low volatility – 19 Sep

Haven’t traded this market before, and I know it’s an expensive market to trade, a 1 point move is a 10 pips move, so what looks like small price changes can impact me a lot. Regardless, I can’t ignore the number of divergences I see across the different timeframes. Whilst I can see this heading higher, especially with such low volatility, the market looks ripe for shorting.

Monthly Chart

Divergence forming on the monthly chart?

S&P Monthly Chart – 18 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Weekly divergences in play – another one forming this week?

S&P Weekly Chart – 18 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Double/triple divergence in play on the daily chart.

S&P Daily Chart – 18 Sep 17

4H Chart – Set up

Double divergence on the 4H Chart. However very low volatility makes me nervous, great to have a tight stop but on low volatility it seems pretty stupid.

S&P 4H Chart – 18 Sep 17

1H Chart – Confirmation

Divergence confirming the trade.

S&P 1H Chart – 18 Sep 17

Stopped out on low volatility – 19 Sep

Well I’m not surprised that (a) a double divergence has played out on the 4H chart and (b) I got stopped out on a tight stop. Will need to speak to Charlie about this price action. Seems kind of dumb to set such a tight stop and then get stopped out on expected/minimal price action.

I’ve set an alert for price to form another high @ 2508 – I think it might – seasonally we might get lower prices before the traditional Christmas rally.

Gold DST Short – 6 Sep 17

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Acc Risk: 0.5%
Short: 1340.0
Stop: 1344.7 (47 pips)
Target: 1319.0 (210 pips, 4h50, 4.46x RR)

Updates

Stopped out – 7 Sep 17

A slightly smaller position size, wanted to keep my positions to £40 or under, had previously been £30. (I’m thinking I should probably increase this to £50 otherwise I’ll never progress much further.) I quite like this divergence on the 4h chart, but we’re near a trendline I had previously drawn on the daily chart.

Try not to put too much emphasis on trendlines though!

4H Chart – set up

A relatively late stage divergence which looks promising.

Gold 4H Chart – 6 Sep 17

1H Chart – confirmation

A double divergence? Would need to see further back to confirm … one sec … yep it’s a double!

Gold 1H Chart – 6 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Close to my trendline but not putting too much emphasis on it. The gap has already been filled.

Gold Daily Chart – 6 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Nothing of note really.

Gold Weekly Chart – 6 Sep 17

Monthly Chart

Into the m100. Might get a bit of ping pong between it and the m50?

Gold Monthly Chart – 6 Sep 17

Stopped out – 7 Sep 17

Not surprised to get stopped out, but I was surprised to get slipped on this trade. I don’t think I should’ve been, reviewed the price action on MT4 and the slippage didn’t look justified. I checked with Charlie and on his chart the slippage was there, so I’ve left it, but I got slipped 20 pips and took an additional loss of £10.

Not much money, but it’s still a 20% addition to the original amount risked.

XAUUSD 4h Chart – 7 Sep 17

Here’s the video replay of that slippage – original stop was 1344.7 actual stop was 1346.6.

What’s worse is the next divergence that came in I missed the set up – on holiday – so I didn’t get to trade it and run it down to the 4h100. I did set an order hoping to get triggered end of the day but cancelled it over the weekend (worried about gaps – probably shouldn’t have). Either way, the move went without me.

EURGBP DST Long – 6 Sep 17

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Acc Risk: 0.57%
Long: 0.9150
Stop: 0.9127 (23 pips)
Target: 0.9214 (64 pips, 4h50, 2.78x RR)
Mindset: Marginal set up around a moving average. Feeling positive following my recent winners.

Update

Stopped out – 6 Sep 17
Thoughts on stops

Spotted this set up in my morning scan, I quite liked the set up (although it is pretty marginal) but did have an hourly divergence too. The position size is reasonable too considering the small stop loss. I don’t tend to like these smaller stop levels because it usually precedes a decent spike against me (i.e. I’m in too early). I prefer more of a flush and recovery before getting in.

4H Chart

Marginal divergence, mid way between two major divergences, but looks ok. The blue lines are two possible upper trendlines from the weekly chart.

EURGBP 4H Chart – 6 Sep 17

1H Chart

The divergence is there but the current move down looks a little concerning.

EURGBP 1H Chart – 6 Sep 17

Daily Chart

Nothing of note really – maybe price chopping around the d20 line!?

EURGBP Daily Chart – 6 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Just noticed a weekly divergence short! Ops. Not great to go counter-trend on a higher timeframe.

EURGBP Weekly Chart – 6 Sep 17

Stopped out – same day

Just been stopped out – not surprised – thought it was marginal. The price nipped me out and is currently around the same level I entered at.

The divergence has been spoilt now and I guess I should wait for a 4h200 test now. However I noticed the positioning on Oanda is heavily short 76%. So I’d love another excuse to get long on this! Maybe I’ll take a long if the hourly sets up around the 4h200!?

It wouldn’t be very disciplined.

Thoughts on stops

Just reviewed the price action on this trade and noticed that the entry would’ve nipped me out twice had I have been going in again for another entry. Which I would’ve, had I been around to trade it. Price did run back up to my target too, which would’ve been really frustrating.

Not sure there’s much to be done about this, but I thought I should log it, in case I come back to it in the future.

EURGBP SL Issues

NZDUSD DST Long – 1 Sept 17

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Acc Risk: 0.55%
Long: 0.7162
Stop: 0.7125 (37 pips)
Target: 0.7261 (4h100, 99 pips, 2.67x RR)
Mindset: Not sure the set up is that great in hindsight, but still sticking to my target of 4h100.

Updates

NFP went my way, but price didn’t hold – 1 Sep
Surprised to see price hit my target – 5 Sep

Got another set up on the NZDUSD. I’d placed an order to get triggered in on this, but was kind of expecting to miss out on this. Price has crossed the 4h500 and the 4h100 and 4h500 will probably converge so I’m thinking a higher target isn’t realistic. Also the d200 has only just been tested (air kissed?) so I can see price chopping around the d200.

Anyway – I’m taking the set up, but expecting to get stopped out.

4H Chart – the set up

I’m pretty happy to trade around moving averages and overshoots like this aren’t uncommon, so it hasn’t put me off. Especially as there’s a divergence. Good entry to go long now.

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 1 Sep 17

1H Chart

Not really a divergence as such – but the MACD low from 23rd / 24th is still lower than the recent low from the 31st. There a mini divergence over the 23rd / 24th that’s played out but as the current low is a little higher I think it’s worth a try. Pretty tenuous I know. Not an A grade set up.

NZDUSD 1H Chart – 1 Sep 17

Daily Chart

We’ve touched the d200 and are in between the d200 and d100. Whilst we could easily do another test of the d200 I think – given the 4h chart – we could be due a retest of the d5.

NZDUSD Daily Chart – 1 Sep 17

Weekly Chart

Weekly into the w50, I wonder whether we’ll get to the upper trendline? I think it’s around the 4h100.

NZDUSD Weekly Chart – 1 Sep 17

NFP went my way, but price didn’t hold – 1 Sep

USDCAD NFP Reversal

This price action really took me by surprise. The NFP result was a miss and so was the unemployment %, however did sustain my rally. Got to say I was surprised to see this, so now I definitely expect to get stopped out, but I will sit tight and let the probability play out.

Surprised to see price hit my target – 5 Sep

Just had my price target hit, pretty happy about it, didn’t feel like it was a great trade to pick in hindsight.

NZDUSD 4H Chart – 5 Sep 17