Starting balance: £7,083.36
Target return: £247.91 (3.5%)
Actual return: £120.93 (1.7%)
Win rate: 50%
Closing balance: £7,204.29

Still not been a great month. Holiday and renovations got in the way of things this time! I’ve really only been trading the odd day and this last week, so I’ve been lucky to make any money really. Very sporadic and you’ve got to take all of the set ups to really maximise the strategy performance.

I have started to log my missed trades this last week more diligently so that I can see whether I am dodging the right trades and of the ones I miss, why I am missing them. Hopefully the October review will have some findings I can implement.

September’s Goals

Here are the goals I set myself at the start of the month.

• Maintain a 40% win rate – Success
• Do at least one scan every trading day – Miss
• Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them – Miss

Daily performance

	All Signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	3	37.5%	0	0%
Losers	2	25%	0	0%
Still live	2	25%	0	0%
Missed	1	12.5%	0	0%
Total Pips	162	-	0	-

4H performance

	All signals	Win Loss %	Conf. signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	14	53.8%	10	55.6%	3	50%
Losers	11	42.3%	8	44.4%	3	50%
Still live	1	3.8%	0	0%	0	0%
Missed	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Total Pips	1,150	-	954	-	176	-

September trade log

A mixed bunch. I shouldn’t have taken the S&P500 short, not on my plan to trade that market. The gold trade should’ve been followed by a 200 pip winner but I didn’t check each morning. The Oil trade would’ve been a loser had I not traded the wrong market.

#	Date	Stgy	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	01 Sep 17	DST	NZDUSD	Long	0.75%	0.7162	0.7125	37	0.7261	99	2.67	0.7240	78	2.1	6	85.53
2	04 Sep 17	DST	AUDCAD	Long	0.6%	0.9865	0.9846	19	0.9919	54	2.84	0.9909	44	2.32	2	66.83
3	06 Sep 17	DST	EURGBP	Long	0.75%	0.9150	0.9127	23	0.9214	64	2.78	0.9127	-23	-1	1	-41.30
4	06 Sep 17	DST	Gold	Short	0.5%	1340	1344.7	47	1319	210	4.46	1346.6	-66	-1.4	2	-53.44
5	18 Sep 17	DST	SPX	Short	0.6%	2501.2	2506.5	50	2348	1535	30	2506.5	-50	-1	2	-40.00
6	21 Sep 17	DST	Oil	Short	0.6%	50.57	51.15	58	48.26	231	4	50.57	-4	0	1	-1.80
7	21 Sep 17	DST	CADJPY	Short	0.6%	91.20	91.75	55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	22 Sep 17	DST	GBPJPY	Short	0.65%	152.15	152.99	84	149.48	267	3.1	150.18	197	2.34	4	107.73

Miss of the month – Gold

Down to my poor routine, I got stopped out, got another divergence entry to go short but wasn’t around to trade it. Frustrating because it corresponded to a trendline touch and a test of the m100.

4H Divergence Chart

Double divergence into the trendline confirmed on the 1H chart.

Daily Chart

Not much to report here.

Weekly Chart

Same – not much going on.

Monthly Chart

Run into w100.

One last point – I haven’t heard anyone not being positive about the future of Gold. However my trendline in red looks fairly bad for Gold. Price has crossed it – retested it and I can see a move down to the m200 around 1000 area.

I’ll only trade the divergences I see, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold head lower.

New goals

Keep them the same plus one other which is the goal I most want to complete next month.

• Trade at least 50% of the confirmed divergences I see.
• Maintain a 40% win rate
• Do at least one scan every trading day
• Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them

Starting balance: £6,967.51
Target return: £243.86 (3.5%)
Actual return: £115.85 (1.66%)
Win rate: 100%
Closing balance: £7,083.29

Not a great month for me, the stats above look OK but I only took two trades and they just happened to both win. The renovations and routine are again my two biggest blockers to trading. When work is busy and the house renovations are still on-going, I find it very difficult to fit everything in.

I also took some holiday and missed some class set-ups on my birthday.

August’s Goals

Here are the goals I set myself at the start of the month.

• Maintain a 40% win rate – Success
• Do at least one daily scan – Miss
• Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them – Miss
• Up my position size to 0.75% – Success, although in the end I just upped it by £10.

Daily performance

The strategy didn’t do great this month, mainly due to trending markets. I was lucky to dodge these set ups.

	All Signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	1	100%	0	0%
Losers	0	0%	0	0%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%
Missed	0	0%	0	0%
Total Pips	192	-	0	-

4H performance

Not a great set of figures for the strategy or me, but I did out-perform the win rate!

	All signals	Win Loss %	Conf. signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	22	46.8%	20	52.6%	2	100%
Losers	25	53.2%	18	47.4%	0	0%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Missed	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Total Pips	1,012	-	1,031	-	111	-

August trade log

#	Date	Stgy	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	24 Aug 17	DST	NZDUSD	Long	0.75%	0.7218	0.7185	33	0.7279	61	2	0.7288	70	2.1	6	86.23
2	03 Aug 17	DST	EURUSD	Short	0.45%	1.1868	1.1916	48	1.1645	243	5	1.1827	41	0.85	23	29.62

Miss of the month – US Oil

Hindsight is such a great thing, I noticed this US Oil trade during my September scans, it’s not A grade but it was a decent set up and oil can really move so it would’ve been worth trading IMO.

4H Divergence Chart

I noticed the divergence was forming on a trendline which I had recently drawn.

1H Confirmation

A decent double divergence had formed on the hourly chart.

Daily Chart

Not much on the daily chart, but I did notice the proximity to the d500 which was a case against this trade.

Weekly Chart

The prior weeks leading up to this trade were all doji type bars, indicating a move higher. We were also handrailing the green trendline.

Would’ve been a good trade to run to the 4h200 & d200.

New goals

• Maintain a 40% win rate
• Do at least one scan every trading day
• Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them

Starting balance: £6,875.86
Target return: £240.65 (3.5%)
Actual return: £91.65 ( 1.33% )
Win rate: 50%
Closing balance: £6,967.51

I feel this month went better than it might look above. The win rate was solid enough but unfortunately, even though I made pips, the position sizing on my winning trades couldn’t be as large as I’d like. Spikes high often meant I had to downsize my positions.

The strategy took a beating this month with lots of losers (although it still made pips!) but I managed to dodge most of the losing trades. I also had a week’s holiday at the end of the month which surprise surprise was when a few winners started to set up.

The biggest limitation again is my routine. This is an excuse; but with the house renovations going on and builders needing things done or sourced, we’re working on the house until 1am most nights, on top of work I’m totally wrecked. If I recline my chair too much, I’m asleep 🙂

I can’t really see this situation changing until October time, so hopefully only another month or two and we’ll be in a more predictable place.

This is what my goals were for this month.

July’s Goals

Here are the goals I set myself at the start of the month.

• 40% win rate – Success
• Achieve a 3.5% profit month

Daily performance

The strategy took a beating this month, mainly due to trending markets. I was lucky to dodge these set ups.

	All Signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	0	0%	0	0%
Losers	9	100%	0	0%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%
Total Signals	9	-	0	-
Total Pips	-761	-	0	-

4H performance

Not a great set of figures for the strategy or me, but I did out-perform the win rate!

	All signals	Win Loss %	Signals with Confirmation	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	16	31.3%	14	35.8%	4	50%
Losers	32	62.7%	23	59%	4	50%
Still live	3	5.8%	2	5.2%	0	0%
Not triggered	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Total Signals	51	-	39	-	8	-
Total Pips	530	-	689	-	205	-

July trade log

#	Date	Stgy	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
60	30 Jun 17	DST	USDCAD	Long	0.45%	1.2974	1.2941	34	1.3181	206	6	1.2941	-34	-1	5	-25.92
61	30 Jun 17	DST	NZDUSD	Short	0.45%	0.7317	0.7354	36	0.7159	158	4.3	0.7275	42	1.16	6	36.54
62	05 Jul 17	DST	USDCAD	Long	0.45%	1.2949	1.2907	42	1.3156	207	4.92	1.2904	-45	-1	2	-35.91
63	10 Jul 17	DST	AUDCAD	Long	0.45%	0.9790	0.9767	23	0.9968	178	7.73	0.9868	78	3.4	2	69.79
64	11 Jul 17	DST	Gold	Long	0.45%	1210.4	1204.1	63	1230.3	199	3.15	1221	106	1.68	2	52.17
65	13 Jul 17	DST	CADJPY	Short	0.5%	88.77	89.39	62	84.60	418	6.74	89.39	-62	-1	13	-41.00
66	17 Jul 17	DST	USDCAD	Long	0.5%	1.2655	1.2635	22	1.2830	175	7.95	1.2635	-22	-1	1	-33.15
67	28 Jul 17	DST	CADJPY	Short	0.6%	88.95	89.77	82	86.76	201	2.5	87.53	142	1.73	7	69.13

Goals next month

After talking with Charlie we agreed that aiming for an amount of money is the wrong goal to aim for. (Forcing your will on to the market.) Best to focus on process and let the stats decide, however upping my position size will help me get closer to my target sooner.

• Maintain a 40% win rate
• Achieve a 3.5% profit month
• Log all my missed trades with reasons why I didn’t take them
• Up my position size to 0.75%

Daily goal

Do at least one scan a day.

Other things to cover with Charlie

• Missed trade log
• Killer trends in USDCAD & CADJPY
• GBPUSD trades – getting stopped out



• UK100GBP set up near misses – take anyway?

Starting balance: £6,779.05
Target return: £240.65 (3.55%)
Actual return: £96.81
Closing balance: £6,875.86 ( 1.43% )

I’ve enjoyed this month a lot more, felt more confident trading with the tighter rules. Definitely fewer trades, but I prefer the quality of the trades. Still get caught out from time-to-time thinking a trade isn’t on, only for it to materialise and take me by surprise.

I’ve been lucky and unlucky, missed an entry on the FTSE by 3 pips and got closed out of position for a small profit on oil which would’ve been a loser had the trade not expired! Can’t really complain all in all. Still learning lots.

One last thing: I need to be careful with my analysis – not paralysing myself trying to read too much into other markets. my missed EUR long trades were a case in point, waiting for the perfect set up even though I had valid set ups to go long.

Daily Performance

Two daily divergences, I missed both! Gold I was already in a trade and looking to add, the retracement never happened (should’ve moved my target to the daily though – don’t know why I didn’t). The FTSE just totally passed me by! Doh. Would’ve been a good entry following my 3 pip miss on the 4H chart.

	All Signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	2	100%	0	0%
Losers	0	0%	0	0%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%
Total Signals	2	-	0	-
Total Pips	385	-	0	-

4H Performance

Missed a lot of trades, again through poor discipline. I have patches of regular scans and then life invariably gets in the way. Be it work events, the house renovations, jet lag or getting burgled! One bad trade (the AUDJPY 15M trade) and some good ones that didn’t feel so good at the time (Oil and Gold).

	All signals	Win Loss %	Signals with Confirmation	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	22	41.5%	17	54.8%	2	28.5%
Losers	27	50.9%	12	38.7%	4	57.1%
Still live	2	3.8%	0	0%	0	0%
Not triggered	2	3.8%	2	6.4%	1	14.3%
Total Signals	53	-	31	-	7	-
Total Pips	1,687	-	1,412	-	276	-

June Trade Log

The first AUDJPY trade was the only trade I shouldn’t have taken.

#	Date	Stgy	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	01 Jun 17	DST	FTSE	Short	0.55%	7547.8	7591.3	44	7465.5	82	1.87	7591.3	-44	-1	2	-33.04
2	07 Jun 17	DST	Gold	Short	0.45%	1292.8	1297.1	43	1271.8	210	4.8	1273.5	193	4.48	2	134.55
3	16 Jun 17	DST	EURAUD	Long	0.45%	1.4685	1.4655	30	1.4780	95	3.1	1.4655	-30	-1	4	-30.55
4	16 Jun 17	DST	Oil	Long	0.45%	44.60	44.11	49	48.70	110	2.24	44.73	13	-	1	9.10
5	16 Jun 17	DST	AUDJPY	Short	0.45%	84.65	84.80	15	84.05	75	5	84.82	-17	-1	1	-29.93
6	19 Jun 17	DST	Oil	Long	0.45%	43.46	42.84	60	46.40	294	4.9	42.84	-60	-1	1	-30.00
7	22 Jun 17	DST	Oil	Long	0.45%	42.56	41.95	61	45.00	244	4	44.80	224	3.67	7	112.00
8	28 Jun 17	DST	AUDJPY	Short	0.5%	85.26	85.55	29	83.91	134	4.6	85.6	-34	-1	1	-33.80

Mistake of the month

My biggest mistake from this month’s trading is my AUDJPY trade; trading on a timeframe I couldn’t manage.

I was keen to take a trade, saw a set up on the hourly that looked nice and went to the 15 chart to confirm the trade. The trade itself was fine, BUT I couldn’t move my limit order inline with my MA target on the timeframe because I was working. So even if it had’ve worked out it became a stress to manage.
I should’ve remembered that my lifestyle doesn’t suit the lower timeframe and not to force a trade through to appease my inpatients.

AUDJPY

Success of the month

Had to be my Oil trade, the reason being I took 3 consecutive attempts to get the winner. This is something I should be prepared to do always but I know I wouldn’t have stomached it 6 months ago, specifically: keeping an eye on something that’s lost me money (and not turning away in disgust) and going back in several times. That’s progress for me !!!

Notes to review with Charlie

1. Go through my current NZDUSD trade
2. Go through the current EURJPY set up (set up on the daily and hourly but not the 4h)
3. AUDJPY 4h short yesterday – how would you have traded that given the early break?
4. Discuss the significance of trendlines in the EURUSD long trade (20th June) and the EURJPY trade (15th June).
5. How to deal with big trends. Are there specific things you look for? E.g. NZDUSD 4H.
6. MBT discussion on bigger loses / trades. You trade a pure strategy vs discretionary. If you lose on a pure strategy you have the background of the back testing results to rationalise the trade vs discretionary where it’s not so easily measurable because you’re not necessarily always trading consistently.

Starting balance: £6,815.66
Target return: £241.95 (3.55%)
Actual return: -£36.61
Closing balance: £6,779.05 ( -0.54% )

Overall my assessment of the month would be one of poor discipline (not being focussed enough). With the house renovations going on and a holiday to get ready for I didn’t regularly check the markets. I was too busy buying bathroom sinks and posing trunks 😀 !

On the positive I didn’t hemorrhage money, a few losers but after my call with Charlie, I’ve started trading tighter. My DST rules are now:

1. Only take a trade when a divergence occurs on two adjacent timeframes
2. Only take the divergence if two or more markets are setting up
3. Take the sweetest looking divergence (kinda obvious but I do find my head gets stuck into one market)

Daily Performance

There was only 1 divergence I spotted this month, GBPJPY. I didn’t take it as I was trading the GBPAUD pair. In hindsight the GBPJPY should’ve been my focus because it set up on 4H and Daily timeframes (rather than the GBPAUD setting up on the 4H and 1H timeframes – higher timeframes are more significant).

	All Signals	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	1	100%	0	0%
Losers	0	0%	0	0%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%
Total Signals	1	-	0	-
Total Pips	511	-	0	-

4H Performance

Not a bad month to be away on holiday, some really strong trends in play which has hammered the win rate. Taking all DST signals would’ve resulted in a win rate of 38% – however the strategy still made over 1,000 pips.

Factoring in the new rules, the win rate would’ve been 56%. What’s interesting this month is the new rules would’ve meant I’d missed half of all losing set ups and only 2 of the winning set ups! (Be interesting to see how that plays out over subsequent months.)

	All signals	Win Loss %	Signals with Confirmation	Win Loss %	Signals Taken	Win Loss %
Winners	21	38%	19	56%	1	20%
Losers	31	56%	14	41%	4	80%
Still live	3	6%	1	3%	0	0%
Total Signals	55	-	34	-	5	-
Total Pips	1,177	-	1,685	-	59	-

May Trade Log

The early trades were taken before my call with Charlie where I switched to a tighter set of rules.

#	Date	Stgy	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	28 Apr 17	DST	EURUSD	Short	0.5%	1.0894	1.0961	63	1.0686	209	3.31	1.0961	-63	-1	7	-33.65
2	1 May 17	DST	USDCAD	Short	0.6%	1.3678	1.3705	27	1.3519	159	5.8	1.3705	-27	-1	2	-37.80
3	3 May 17	DST	Gold	Long	0.55%	1254.5	1251.1	34	1268.0	57	1.67	1251.1	-34	-1	1	-34.00
4	4 May 17	DST	GBPAUD	Short	0.55%	1.7350	1.7396	46	1.7236	114	2.47	1.7396	-46	-1	1	-34.88
5	9 May 17	DST	GBPAUD	Short	0.55%	1.7514	1.7551	37	1.7182	332	8.97	1.7551	-37	-1	1	-29.92
6	10 May 17	DST	GBPAUD	Short	0.45%	1.7593	1.7654	61	1.7375	218	3.57	1.7327	266	4.36	14	132.26

Mistake of the month

My biggest mistake from this month’s trading is not comparing markets side-by-side.

I was following the GBPAUD divergence too closely and not picking up the opportunity in the GBPJPY. I followed both charts but didn’t switch to the GPBJPY which had a better set up. I don’t really have an explanation for why I didn’t switch, but I should’ve.

In future, before taking a trade, I will make a note to layout all the related pairs together (e.g. GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, etc) and compare the relative set ups to double check I’m taking the best opportunity.

Here’s the two charts in question (grey areas are when I was away):

GBPAUD

Early in the month the GBP was strong, so a few stop outs along the way; however price did retrace nicely. I had a good run on this.

GBPJPY

But I should’ve paid more attention to this. A similar set up, price grinded higher resulting in a few stop outs, but the daily divergence formed at the top which would’ve given me a juicier target to aim for. A 4H entry (~147.40) with a Daily target (~141.85) would’ve resulted in a 550 pip trade at almost 7x RR!

Notes to review with Charlie

1. If I hit monthly target early should I tighten up on the trading? Is it best for psychology?
2. Wanted to cover off adding to winning trades and at what stage it’s valid to add in. Thinking about the GBPAUD short on the way down
3. Cover tricky price action following a divergence stop-out. Wait for price action to properly go outside and back inside the bands again? E.g.
   

   GBPJPY 4h stop out example

   

   Tricky price action example

   

   EURCAD Daily Example

Starting balance: £7,005.35
Target return: £234.68 (3.35%)
Actual return: -£189.64
Closing balance: £6,815.71 ( -2.7% )

Daily Performance

There was only 1 divergence I spotted and I took it (it was a loser)

	Actual	Win Loss %	Trades taken	Win Loss %
Signals	1	-	1	-
Winners	0	0%	0	0%
Losers	1	100%	1	100%
Still live	0	0%	0	0%

4H Performance

Again didn’t perform as well as I’d hoped aiming to take 50-60% of all trade signals. But given my smaller account size I can’t afford to spread my positions around at my current risk level (0.5%). I’ve definitely been more active in the markets scanning and picking trades. I think this past month has seen a couple of strong trends (in the JPY and GBP) which have not been favourable for the strategy.

So the winners haven’t been big and the losers have been numerous.

	Actual	Win Loss %	Trades taken	Win Loss %
Signals	51	-	20	-
Winners	16	31.3%	7	35%
Losers	31	60.7%	13	65%
Still live	4	7.8%	0	0%

April Trade Log

#	Date	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	28 Mar 17	GBPCAD	Short	0.6%	1.6829	1.6912	84	1.6636	193	2.3	1.6655	174	2.07	1	86.85
2	28 Mar 17	GBPJPY	Long	0.9%	138.00	137.40	60	147.82	982	16.3	138.60	60	1	7	58.42
3	30 Mar 17	EURJPY	Long	0.4%	119.41	118.85	56	120.86	145	2.59	118.85	-56	-1	2	-28.10
4	03 Apr 17	EURJPY	Long	0.6%	118.84	118.40	44	119.99	115	2.61	118.40	-44	-1	1	-21.83
5	03 Apr 17	AUDUSD	Long	0.6%	0.7609	0.7571	38	0.7693	84	2.2	0.7571	-38	-1	2	-39.12
6	05 Apr 17	Gold	Short	0.4%	1255.2	1263.3	81	1234.0	212	2.61	1263.3	-81	-1	3	-24.76
7	05 Apr 17	CADJPY	Long	0.35%	82.33	81.90	43	83.69	136	3.16	83.19	86	2	6	51.18
8	06 Apr 17	AUDNZD	Long	0.3%	1.0817	1.0803	14	1.0893	76	5	1.0803	-14	-1	2	-15.56
9	10 Apr 17	EURJPY	Long	0.45%	117.70	117.27	43	118.45	75	1.74	117.27	-43	-1	3	-32.90
10	10 Apr 17	AUDJPY	Long	0.5%	83.223	82.746	48	84.457	123	2.57	82.746	-48	-1	2	-33.39
11	10 Apr 17	EURUSD	Long	0.4%	1.0585	1.0563	22	1.0660	75	3.4	1.0633	48	2.1	3	59.57
12	12 Apr 17	EURCAD	Long	0.5%	1.4110	1.4084	26	1.4240	156	6	1.4084	-26	-1	1	-33.15
13	12 Apr 17	CADJPY	Long	0.5%	82.25	81.97	28	83.46	121	4.32	81.97	-28	-1	2	-33.60
14	13 Apr 17	EURCAD	Long	0.5%	1.4120	1.4084	36	1.4224	104	2.88	1.4084	-36	-1	1	-36.10
15	20 Apr 17	EURUSD	Short	0.35%	1.0759	1.0782	23	1.0697	62	2.7	1.0719	40	1.7	1	40.03
16	24 Apr 17	EURCAD	Short	0.6%	1.4634	1.4717	83	1.4313	321	3.86	1.4718	-84	-1	2	-42.13
17	26 Apr 17	USDCAD	Short	0.5%	1.3588	1.3631	43	1.3434	154	3.58	1.3631	-43	-1	2	-35.52
18	27 Apr 17	GBPCAD	Short	0.55%	1.7485	1.7548	63	1.6935	613	9.7	1.7548	-63	-1	1	-37.86
19	28 Apr 17	GBPCAD	Short	0.5%	1.7613	1.7654	41	1.7429	225	5.48	1.7655	-42	-1	1	-31.35
20	28 Apr 17	GBPAUD	Short	0.4%	1.7285	1.7337	52	1.7061	276	5.3	1.7338	-53	-1	1	-28.66
21	28 Apr 17	EURUSD	Short	0.5%	1.0894	1.0961	63	1.0686	209	3.31	1.0961	-63	-1	7	-33.65

Notes to review with Charlie

1. Noticed clusters of set ups form (e.g. All JPY pairs setting up).
2. Switching markets after being stopped out – might dilute the win rates. Need to pick the markets better first and then stick with the best set ups.
3. Need to get better about my trade scans – make sure I check every day rain or shine. Still missing the odd scan and therefore missing set ups.
4. Trading too many markets? Multiple signals across correlated markets. Difficult to decide which to take. Goes to previous point – I’ve ditched the NZD to help with my routine and scan times.
5. Using the higher timeframes more (been too focussed on the lower timeframes) Struggling to appreciate the significance of what I’m seeing. (e.g. daily vs weekly, trendlines vs MAs, etc)
6. Add to checklist – are there other divergences in play across other markets with better targets?
7. Using the hourly timeframe to get better entries – not necessarily a divergence – but band play?
8. Started to think about my account in terms of number of bets (like big blinds in poker).
9. Emotion free trading eBook. Finding it difficult to get into a positive state having never had a run of winners.

Holiday – talk through approach for winding down trading …

This month I’d give myself the grade: C-
Starting balance: £7,070.10
Target return: £255.50
Actual return: -£64.75
Closing balance: £7,005.35 -0.85%

I’ve been itching to get to the end of the month to see how I did since I started trading more markets.

All I can say is WOW, I did pretty badly! Before I crunched the numbers on my performance, I actually thought I’d done OK this month. OK being, checked regularly enough, had a few trades on each week, handled the increased number of markets, traded the right markets, kept up the journalling, etc. However, I have hugely underperformed the strategy.

Daily

On the daily charts, I only traded 30% of the set ups. I under performed the strategy quite badly.

	Actual	Win Loss %	Trades taken	Win Loss %
Signals	10	-	3	-
Winners	6	60%	1	33%
Losers	3	30%	1	33%
Still live	1	10%	1	33%

4 Hourly

On the 4H charts, I only traded 29% of the set ups (under performing badly!) What’s worse is I managed to catch over half of the total losing trades! 😐

	Actual	Win Loss %	Trades taken	Win Loss %
Signals	38	-	11	-
Winners	22	58%	3	27%
Losers	11	29%	6	55%
Still live	5	13%	2	18%

Given that I have underperformed this strategy so badly, I’d have to put the whole thing down to my psychology (second guessing trades) and lack of discipline (not being routine enough, when I check the markets). The psychology is probably my greatest issue, I keep wanting to put wider stops on, which skews the RR and puts me off the trade (especially around MAs and support lines).

I think my most significant changes for next month will be tighter stops (10 pips), getting back into markets and downsizing position sizes at ambiguous areas. This will be my number one goal for next month – if I can consistently do that, I reckon I will make some money.

March Trade Log

Here’s the break-down of my trades this month.

#	Date	Mkt	Pos	Acc Rsk	Open	Stop	Stp Pips	Tgt	Tgt Pips	R:R	Close	Fnl Pips	Fnl R:R	Days	P&L (£)
1	27 Feb 17	Gold	Short	0.3%	1254.8	1266	112	1235	198	1.75	1234.8	200	1.78	2	39.68
2	01 Mar 17	GBPCAD	Short	0.4%	1.6469	1.6529	60	1.6374	95	1.6	1.6374	95	1.6	1	47.90
3	02 Mar 17	AUDNZD	Short	0.4%	1.0740	1.0792	52	1.0565	175	3.36	1.0792	-52	1	2	-29.19
4	03 Mar 17	EURUSD	Long	0.4%	1.0515	1.0475	40	1.0595	80	2	1.0594	79	1.97	8	54.25
5	06 Mar 17	FTSE	Short	0.6%	7359.0	7416.0	57	6943	416	7.29	7416	-57	-1	11	-78.06
6	07 Mar 17	GBPUSD	Long	0.6%	1.2206	1.2149	57	1.2383	234	4.1	1.2149	-57	-1	2	-43.41
7	09 Mar 17	GBPUSD	Long	0.6%	1.2160	1.2110	50	1.2358	198	3.96	1.2150	-10	-0.2	5	-6.87
8	10 Mar 17	EURAUD	Short	0.6%	1.4096	1.4139	43	1.3978	120	2.88	1.4139	-43	-1	1	-46.37
9	14 Mar 17	AUDNZD	Short	0.5%	1.0936	1.0969	33	1.0875	61	1.84	1.0969	-33	-1	2	-33.39
10	16 Mar 17	EURUSD	Short	0.7%	1.0709	1.0757	48	1.0618	91	1.89	1.0757	-48	-1	1	-47.40
11	20 Mar 17	AUDUSD	Short	0.6%	0.7725	0.7758	33	0.7641	84	2.6	0.7644	81	2.45	3	110.78
12	22 Mar 17	EURUSD	Short	0.3%	1.0810	1.0830	20	1.0714	116	5.8	-	-	-	-	-
13	22 Mar 17	EURCAD	Short	0.4%	1.4447	1.4478	30	1.4347	100	3.3	1.4478	-30	-1	1	-31.10
14	23 Mar 17	GBPJPY	Long	0.3%	138.65	138.13	48	140.28	163	3.4	-	-	-	-	-

Summary of what’s working and what isn’t

Here’s my summary of what worked and what didn’t.

What worked

1. I covered more markets and feel I am getting a better feel for those markets (mainly volatility).
2. Managed my risk pretty well – I averaged 1.95x RR on my winners – so despite losing twice as much as I won, my drawdown was only 0.85% this month
3. Didn’t close any of my trades early. Once in a trade, I kept to the system.
4. My journalling has been consistent so I’ve been able to look back on trades and review what I did.
5. My market scan note taking is working for me. * indicate levels worth watching, ** indicate a set up is forming and *** indicates a set up is in play. Good for reminding me of correlating markets and managing my exposure.
6. !! indicates a trade is on. Again helps me to manage my exposure to a currency. I’m sure as I trade more I will need to make calls on total exposure to a currency.

What wasn’t so great

Quite a bit 🙂 !

1. I missed set ups through lack of discipline and rigour with my morning and evening market scans
2. I second guessed a number of trades (in particular the GBPUSD) which in hindsight was a golden opportunity. Would’ve been a great winner but felt stupid at the time, trading into volatility ahead of the fed rate decision.
3. Tampered with my position sizing too much! My losers were generally larger size trades than my winners. I shouldn’t really started tweaking my position size until I’ve endured a more sustained drawdown.

Changes for next month

1. Get a small position in the market on the open of a valid candlestick and place the bulk of the trade as an order at a better price. It won’t always be a full trade but it’s better to be in the market
2. Make sure I’m back in a trade after a loser if the signal is still valid. This is so important, especially when you get an additional divergence, my confidence in the trade should increase. It won’t always work out but it usually does.
3. Don’t get too precious about how price enters the bands after move higher, it won’t always be text book (Think about the FTSE trade)
4. Rigour & Discipline. 10pm should be my main scan of the day, morning to validate any set ups forming, lunch time to check on price alerts. I also need to keep a better eye on the higher timeframes, I’ve ignored them too much.
5. Trade smaller stops and be prepared to jump back in if the set up is still valid

I would also consider upping my position size for double or triple divergences but I think I’ll keep this back for another month.

Monthly trade overview

Here’s my run down of the markets I traded this month:

• Blue circles are winning or open trades taken
• Red circles are losing trades taken
• Black circles are missed DST set ups (they appear in pairs or triplets)
• Dotted black circles would be missed DST trades that would’ve been a loser (just for context)
• Grey circles are DST set ups I chose not to take

EURUSD

EURGBP

EURJPY

EURAUD

EURCAD

EURNZD

GBPUSD

GBPJPY

GBPAUD

GBPCAD

GBPJPY

GBPNZD

AUDUSD

AUDNZD

AUDJPY

NZDUSD

USDCAD

USDJPY

XAUUSD

FTSE

Trade plan updates

I need to update the plan to include:

• The change in markets markets
• Revise my goals to be achievable for next month.
• Add a section on routine (Morning, Lunch and Evening quick market reviews i.e. 10 minutes)
• Start adding calendar reminders to review my plan at the beginning of each week
• Set alarms to remind me to check the 4H charts when they are setting up
• Get better at setting alerts

Overall I’d give myself a grade C
Account performance +0.16% (basically scratch)

Not a great month. I started trading on 23 Jan and we’ve now done a month of trading. The biggest failings have been my lack of routine (not checking the markets at set times so missing set ups) and trading too few markets (having no skin in the game). I started out the month looking at Daily and 4H charts of EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Gold.

It seems to me you need to build up your trade history/mileage to get comfortable – so I need to be in more markets seeing more varying price action. Making a handful of trades each month won’t help me improve that quickly. So I need to expand the markets I trade and aim for around 10 – 20 trades a month (see updated trade plan)

In the later week I started following more of the major crosses, although I still managed to miss most trades due to lack of routine. So that’s something I’ve got to get licked ASAP!
In summary here’s what worked and didn’t.

Trade summary

This month I took 4 trades, 3 were winners, 1 loser. I also opted not to take a trade on the AUDUSD because although it set up, it was very close to resistance so felt like I might get needlessly stopped out. I also felt if I did try and trade it, I wouldn’t trade it well with my current level of experience.

Of all the markets I now follow there were 24 DST trades: 19 winners, 5 losers (so it should’ve been a great month).

Here’s a run-down of the markets and set ups.

• Blue annotations are winning trades taken
• Red annotations are losing trades taken
• Black circles are missed DST set ups (they appear in pairs or triplets)
• Dotted black circles would be missed DST trades that would’ve been a loser (I recorded these to help with my confidence)
• Grey circles are DST set ups I wouldn’t know how to trade

Gold

There were only set ups on the 4H chart. I spotted two and took both – the second was marginal – but worked out. I was relatively happy with both trades, felt my target selection was good, but I did lose 40 odd pips by not moving my limit order in the morning.

EURUSD

I didn’t realise my first trade was a double divergence, so I should’ve set my targets higher given the recent price action testing the 100MA. My other trade was a loser – a divergence that set up but then ultimately didn’t and proved me wrong.

What was frustrating was missing the next trade. I was following on my phone but didn’t check the market at the right time, so missed my entry!

Again no daily set ups.

EURGBP

Missed these two trades, both would’ve worked out and the second trade was a double divergence so would expect price to go higher for the rest of this month.

GBPUSD

Watched this first divergence really closely but the price action flew past any realistic entry. In hindsight I did wonder about trying to enter on the lower timeframe 1H. In theory it would’ve been possible but might’ve been difficult to juggle with work.

Here’s the chart. Would’ve definitely resulted in two attempts to make it stick.

The only other thing I noted was the divergent like behaviour testing the 200MA. Although price didn’t close lower, the MACD kept rising and it made we wonder if the 200MA was distorting price action a little?!

This is more obvious on the next chart.

BTW no Daily set ups again.

GBPAUD

Here’s the better example of the 200MA distorting price action. Interesting to see if that plays out in the future.

Just one true divergence which I missed entirely! Looking back, I reckon it would’ve taken 3 attempts to make it stick.

GBPCAD

Just one marginal divergence – I did spot this but just didn’t realise what was going on until it was too late. It’s much easier to spot a divergence once price action has been printed on the chart!

AUDUSD

This market has been trending like crazy – there’s a nice trend channel in play. The first divergence on the chart I missed but worked out fine, the second one I bottled because it was so close to the upper resistance line. My stop would’ve been on or near the resistance area so it seemed stupid to me to take the trade.

Technically I should’ve taken the trade – my goal was a flawless month of taking DST trades, but I just didn’t feel comfortable taking this one.

USDCAD

Two really nice divergences missed here. The second one is marginal again but I always included these scenarios in my back-testing. Disappointed to have missed these two especially as the first one coincided with a Daily divergence so I could’ve ramped up my targets.

USDJPY

Not sure I would’ve taken the first divergence, with the wicks going lower than the prior low and the decent divergence in play, I’d like to think I would’ve 🙂 The second divergence almost materialised into a double. Given the price action I could see this as a good place to add to a position if risk allowed.

Interesting to me how both were not really clear cut trade scenarios.

FTSE

Just the one divergence, but I can see another nice one in the making! Nothing on the daily.

SPX

Feels like the rise in the S&P is relentless. There’s a definite short setting up at the moment but again another set up I saw but didn’t really know how best to trade the price action (being inside the bands and not really having any clear swings higher or lower).

Nothing on the daily.

What worked

• I didn’t break my rules
• I’ve had a couple of +2x reward to risk trades
• I generally picked good targets

What didn’t work

• Due to a lack of routine. I missed the majority of set ups and wasted 40 pips by not closing one position!
• My entries could’ve been better. I should scale in to positions more.
• My position size wasn’t really big enough. I should increase this to 1% so I can build the account quicker.
• I started off trading too few markets for my timeframes (not enough set ups coming along). I’ve expanded to most of the major currency crosses now.
• Reviewing all timeframes before making a trade (forgot at least twice), so I didn’t know whether I was with or against trend and whether my targets might not be realistic.

Changes for the next month

THe key changes are more markets, more routine, looking back further and using the 1H timeframe for entries.

I also need to update the plan to include:

• The change in markets markets
• Revise my goals to be achievable for next month.
• Add a section on routine (Morning, Lunch and Evening quick market reviews i.e. 10 minutes)
• Start adding calendar reminders to review my plan at the beginning of each week
• Set alarms to remind me to check the 4H charts when they are setting up
• Get better at setting alerts